Battlefield losses and the declining pace of voluntary recruitment are making it increasingly difficult for Russia to secure new soldiers for the war in Ukraine. This situation has fueled speculation about another mobilization, although so far there is no indication that Vladimir Putin has decided to undertake a mass call-up.
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According to an analysis by “The Guardian”, authorities in Moscow are aiming to meet the army’s needs mainly by offering voluntary contracts, accompanied by substantial salaries and bonuses. Experts cited in the piece estimate that Russia recruits around 1,000 soldiers each day, but most of them serve to replace losses, not to significantly increase offensive power.
After calling up around 300,000 reservists in September 2022, Moscow has avoided repeating a large-scale mobilization, relying on the contract system. To attract candidates, soldiers are promised high signing bonuses and pay that, in certain cases, is equivalent to several years’ income for residents of Russia’s poorest regions.
The Kremlin has not signaled a new mass call-up, and Russian officials have denied reports that such a mobilization could be imminent. However, activists and those dealing with recruitment issues report that increasing pressure is being put on candidates.
In some regions, according to reports, men have been stopped by police, taken from their workplaces, or sent to recruitment offices. There, they are then pressured to sign contracts with the army.
The possibility of another mobilization is also being used as a way to convince candidates, activists say. They are told that forced call-up could happen at any rate, so signing a contract now would allow them to receive payments before being forcibly mobilized.
The campaign to secure troops has also been expanded to universities and vocational schools, as well as among prisoners who meet the criteria to sign army contracts. Meanwhile, a large part of the responsibility for meeting recruitment targets has been shifted to Russia’s regions.
Governors and local administrations are required to meet set recruitment quotas. In parallel, financial schemes have been set up that reward individuals who manage to convince others to join the armed forces.
Data included in the analysis show that, since the creation of these schemes, Russian regions have given recruiters at least 7.7 billion rubles, or around $96 million. Despite the financial incentives, recruiters themselves admit that finding candidates has become harder.
For the Kremlin, the decision to launch another mass mobilization would carry high risk. The 2022 mobilization sparked protests and caused a large number of Russian citizens to flee abroad.
At the same time, the latest polls cited in the piece show that the belief that the war in Ukraine is going in Russia’s favor has weakened. Analysts think that, at least for now, Moscow is more likely to increase bonuses, step up pressure on regional administrations, and use more coercive recruitment methods than to immediately move to a new mass mobilization.
If even these measures fail to secure the necessary number of soldiers, the Kremlin could again face the choice of another mobilization, whether on a large scale or more limited and selective.
