Declining support for Donald Trump and Americans’ dissatisfaction with the rising cost of living and higher prices have raised the Democratic Party’s expectations for the midterm elections.
Polls put the party ahead in the battle for the House of Representatives. They also show favorable results in several key Senate races, including those in Texas, Kansas and Maine. However, the BBC questions the reliability of these polls.
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Past elections show that polls have understated Trump’s actual support. Many of his supporters do not respond to polls but turn out in large numbers on election day.
Experts explain that conducting polls has become more difficult: people are increasingly unlikely to answer phone calls, and some conservative voters refuse to take part in surveys. This raises the possibility that the Democrats’ lead in published results may be artificial.
Several factors work to the Republicans’ advantage. Many of the areas being contested have traditionally voted Republican, while political polarization has reduced the influence of undecided voters. In addition, the party has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on campaign advertising.
However, Democrats’ hopes for a favorable result also rest on last year’s local and special elections, in which their performance exceeded polling predictions.
Another concern for them is how Trump might react if he loses. Given that he has repeatedly questioned the integrity and security of the US electoral process, there are fears that he could challenge the results again.
The Democratic Party’s optimism and polling lead are no guarantee of victory. Voter turnout, each party’s ability to mobilize its supporters and the choices of voters who remain undecided are expected to determine the outcome, as even the narrowest margins could decide who controls Congress.
