The bill proposed by the ruling Socialist Party to change the administrative-territorial map, which seeks to reduce the number of local government units from 61 to 46 municipalities, is currently in the consultation phase, despite protests in the municipalities expected to be merged.
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Consultations with citizens and municipal councils are expected to conclude in September, after which the Socialists’ proposal for the new map will be discussed in Parliament.
The majority’s aim is for the changes to the territorial map to be implemented in the 2027 local elections.
However, the process of reviewing the new map is unfolding on a tight timetable, raising questions about the standards of the upcoming electoral process, as the Central Election Commission will have to adapt its procedures and technology, local administrations will have to be reorganized, and citizens and parties will need to know in which units they will vote.
Changing administrative boundaries just a few months before the elections, according to electoral-system experts, would not only place additional pressure on the institutions involved in managing the electoral process, but also undermine citizens’ democratic trust.
Afrim Krasniqi of the Institute for Political Studies told BIRN that the territorial reform should have been completed much earlier and should not be carried out in parallel with electoral reform, since determining the map in a timely manner would clarify electoral districts, powers and other elements affecting the organization of the process.
“Under the current circumstances, everything is coming under pressure,” Krasniqi said, adding that “if the territorial reform is approved in the autumn, it means there will be very little time left for the by-laws and the merger of local government units.”
According to him, delays in this process would be “another deadlock with negative consequences for electoral standards.”
Pressure on deadlines
The last local elections were held on May 14, 2023, and their final result was approved in August of that year. The Electoral Code stipulates that the election date must be set no later than nine months before the end of the mandate of elected bodies, while changes to electoral legislation must be approved no later than six months before the election date.
As the country begins preparing for the local elections, the ruling majority aims to approve the new territorial division during the autumn session, leaving very little time for the approval of by-laws and for organizing the units that will be dissolved or merged.
“The municipalities affected will have to adapt their administrative structures and organization, while electoral institutions will have to integrate the changes into their preparations for the elections,” Krasniqi said, adding that this could create “another deadlock with negative consequences for electoral standards.”
But beyond the technical dimension, Krasniqi said what matters is citizens’ “democratic trust.”
“If communities do not feel that they have been consulted or represented in determining their municipality, the question arises as to whether they will consider a contest for a local structure they do not want to be legitimate,” he said.
Rigels Xhemollari of the Citizens’ Resistance organization directly links the delay to the Central Election Commission’s capacity to prepare the elections.
If the new map is approved after the President has decreed the election date, he said, the Commission will face additional difficulties in distributing and procuring voting equipment and technology.
“It will make it difficult for the Central Election Commission to distribute and procure the electronic voting and counting systems expected to be used on a large scale in these elections,” Xhemollari said, adding that the territorial changes would also create new procedures and bureaucracy for the Central Election Commission and the other institutions involved in administering the elections.
For former Central Election Commission chairman Kristaq Kume, the administrative risk is considered “manageable.”
“The delay does not create an insurmountable technical obstacle, since the Central Election Commission has the experience and tools to adapt. But electoral standards are not measured solely by the ability to conduct the vote,” Kume told BIRN.
On the other hand, Kume is concerned that the two proposals for a new territorial division conceal political calculations by the major parties involved in the process, rather than reflecting a need for efficiency or citizen representation.
The map as an electoral tool
The administrative-territorial reform has sparked a political debate over the efficiency and autonomy of local government. Two opposing alternatives have been put on the reform table: the Socialist Party proposes reducing the number of municipalities to 46, while the Democratic Party is seeking an expansion to 100 local government units.
But experts view this debate primarily through the electoral interests of the two main political forces.
Kristaq Kume says the reform should not be viewed merely as an administrative map, since it will shape the architecture of local government for years to come and could potentially affect the electoral contest even before candidates seek citizens’ votes.
“Drawing municipal boundaries is one of the most consequential exercises in electoral geography,” Kume said, adding that because mayors are elected under a relative-majority system (first-past-the-post), the way administrative units are grouped directly determines how the popular vote is translated into power.
From this perspective, he considers the opposing proposals of the two main parties—the Socialist Party’s plan to reduce the number to 46 municipalities and the Democratic Party’s plan to expand it to 100 municipalities—as revealing two entirely different electoral strategies.
Analyzing the Socialist majority’s proposal, which calls for the merger of 15 municipalities and would reduce their number from 61 to 46, Kume argues that beyond the justification that the new model is linked to financial efficiency and management capacity, it also has a political aim.
He calls the process the “dilution” of the opposition vote.
The logic is that rural or peripheral areas where the opposition has traditionally enjoyed support would be included in larger units, where the weight of urban centers would be greater.
In this way, the difference in votes favoring the majority in urban centers could neutralize the opposition’s advantage in peripheral areas.
According to Kume, this model follows, to some extent, the logic of the 2014 reform, which created 61 municipalities from 373 previous units and brought about strong territorial consolidation.
Given that the Socialist Party has a broader organization across the country and won the vast majority of municipalities in the 2023 local elections, Kume suggests that a more consolidated map could help preserve this dominance.
Meanwhile, the Democratic Party justifies its proposal for 100 municipalities by citing the need to preserve local identities and bring government closer to citizens. Kume argues that, electorally, a map with more municipalities would create more small and potentially more competitive contests.
The clash affects more than just mayors. It also has consequences for municipal councils, where a proportional system applies. Larger municipalities will have councils with more seats, lowering the effective threshold for the representation of smaller forces. In smaller municipalities, by contrast, the more limited number of mandates could raise the natural threshold and favor the two main parties.
In this sense, Kume shifts the debate from a purely administrative discussion to the question of what effect the map will have on political competition.
Xhemollari also views the map through its effect on political competition.
According to him, larger municipalities favor the major parties and make it more difficult for new forces to enter the race. Meanwhile, he notes that the Socialist Party appears to be backing away from its initial proposal partly because of protests against the map, considering September decisive for the fate of the territorial reform./BIRN
