The AfD has emerged as the clear winner in the Saxony-Anhalt elections, securing around 44% of the vote. This figure represents a doubling of the party’s result compared to the 2021 elections.
However, the electoral success did not give the far-right party full control over the regional parliament. The AfD will have 39 of the 83 seats, while an absolute majority requires 42 seats.
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The entry of the BSW into parliament, with four deputies, has made the formation of a governing majority even more complicated. The BSW has crossed the 5% electoral threshold, while the SPD, the Greens, and the Left each received around 9% of the vote.
The CDU suffered the sharpest decline, dropping to around 17-18% of the vote, from 37.1% recorded in 2021. Over 76% of voters participated in the election, in a race described as one of the most polarized in recent years in Germany.
The result has closed off the possibility of continuing the current CDU-SPD-FDP coalition, as the FDP failed to win seats in the regional parliament.
A co-governing arrangement of the CDU with the SPD and the Greens would not secure a majority. Even including the Left in this formula would not solve the problem, as the four parties together would have only 40 seats, two fewer than the required number of 42.
Arithmetically, the AfD and the BSW could create a majority of 43 seats. But such an agreement is far from guaranteed due to the significant political differences between the two forces.
The AfD and the BSW have close positions on some issues, especially regarding Russia and the war in Ukraine, but this has not been enough for the BSW to commit to a coalition. Its representatives have only left open the possibility of case-by-case cooperation.
Ulrich Sigmund, the AfD leader in Saxony-Anhalt, has stated that the party will not soften its core positions to secure a governing partner. He has also warned that if the creation of a stable government is not achieved, new elections could be on the horizon.
One of the most sensitive issues relates to the CDU’s stance toward the AfD. A coalition between them would produce 55 seats and a comfortable majority, but it would break the “Brandmauer,” the principle of traditional German parties not to cooperate with the AfD.
The CDU has a resolution that excludes cooperation with both the AfD and the Left. For this reason, the party faces a difficult choice: its traditional partners are not enough for a majority, while other alternatives clash with its political red lines.
Another scenario would be the creation of a minority government led by the CDU. In this case, the executive would have to seek support from other parties on specific issues.
The CDU’s loss is not limited to consequences in state politics. It has increased pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz and has opened a new debate within the party about his ability to lead the CDU until the next federal elections.
Some CDU members have called for a “fresh start” and have even discussed the possibility of Merz stepping down from the party leadership and the chancellorship. However, CDU/CSU leaders have denied the possibility of his resignation.
Torsten Frei, the head of the parliamentary group, has emphasized that the chancellor was elected for a four-year term. Despite this, pressure could mount further on September 20, when elections will be held in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, where the AfD is also showing considerable strength.
The result in Saxony-Anhalt has also sparked reactions outside Germany. Donald Trump commented on the victory on social media, while Elon Musk congratulated Alice Weidel and the AfD on the result.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has sharply condemned the far-right party’s triumph. The French Minister for European Affairs described the result as a serious moment for Europe, while Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani described the victory as “bad news,” hoping it would remain a local exception.
Herbert Kickl, the leader of the FPÖ in Austria, welcomed the AfD’s victory and declared that German voters have torn down the “anti-democratic walls” erected around this party.
The victory in Saxony-Anhalt is historic for the AfD, which has never before been so close to leading a German state. However, the party still lacks a reliable partner with which it can form a majority.
Meanwhile, the CDU must find a governing solution without breaching the “Brandmauer” against the AfD, while Friedrich Merz faces criticism and growing pressure within his own ranks.
The developments in Saxony-Anhalt are expected to influence the next two regional elections, as well as the national debate on Germany’s future political direction.
