The climate phenomenon El Niño, which is intensifying in the Pacific Ocean, is expected to become the strongest ever recorded, according to researchers at the American Berkeley Earth foundation.
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Experts, who have long been monitoring this phenomenon, predict that the heat wave caused by what has already been called “Super-El Niño”, combined with global warming caused by human-induced climate change, could make the year 2027 the hottest year ever recorded.
According to researchers, the extreme temperatures could cause a series of severe meteorological events in many parts of the world, especially in Latin America.
These predictions were made public in the latest climate bulletin of the Berkeley Earth foundation, presented during a conference held on July 23.
“Based on projections from a series of climate models, the peak of this El Niño phenomenon is expected to surpass the previous record by a truly extraordinary margin,” declared climatologist Zeke Hausfather, one of the study’s authors.
According to him, the possibility cannot be ruled out that this phenomenon, combined with global climate change, could raise the planet’s average temperature in 2027 to as much as 1.7°C above the pre-industrial average, even exceeding the 1.5°C threshold that world governments have committed to avoid under the Paris Climate Agreement.
Hausfather analyzed predictions from 14 climate models for this El Niño episode and found that the average estimate for the maximum sea surface temperature in the Pacific is about 0.8°C higher than the previous record set in 2015-2016.
“It is by no means a certain conclusion, but the probability increases month by month,” said the climatologist.
Berkeley Earth’s findings also align with assessments from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which predicts an approximately 80% probability that a ‘very strong’ El Niño phenomenon will develop by the end of the year.
According to NOAA, there is also near-certain confidence that El Niño conditions will persist at least until April 2027, increasing the risk of extreme climate events around the globe.
