The European Commission believes Albania could conclude its accession negotiations in 2027. For expert Milan Nič, the end of 2028 is a more realistic and credible deadline, because adopting reforms on paper is not enough to join the EU.
In its report published on November 4, the European Commission ranks Albania behind Montenegro among the countries that have made the most progress in the enlargement process.
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Albania has opened all 33 negotiating chapters and provisionally closed four of them. According to Brussels, concluding negotiations in 2027 is an ambitious but achievable goal if reforms and political dialogue continue.
Milan Nič, an expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), told DW that the Albanian government’s aim of closing all chapters by the end of 2027 is overly ambitious. He sees the end of 2028 as a more attainable target.
The first reason, Nič says, is the time needed to implement reforms. Albania has moved quickly to open negotiations, but unlike Montenegro, which has had years to prepare its administration, it must meet many requirements in a shorter period.
Changing how the state functions and aligning it with EU rules, he emphasizes, cannot be achieved simply by rewriting laws.
The other reason concerns the confidence of member states. A rushed process could make them question whether the reforms have genuinely been implemented. For that reason, Nič considers credibility just as important as speed.
It is precisely the credibility of Albania’s progress that has raised questions. DW’s diplomatic sources in Berlin say the Balluku affair, the protests and the government’s response to them have prompted a more skeptical assessment than the one reflected in the European Commission’s report.
The Commission praises the judicial reform and SPAK’s investigations into high-level corruption. Nevertheless, Arnisa Tepelija, a rule-of-law researcher at Democracy Reporting International in Berlin, says the report’s tone is much more positive than the reality on the ground.
Tepelija, who has also worked on EU anti-corruption projects in Albania, acknowledges the results of the judicial reform and SPAK’s work.
But she calls on the European Union to look beyond individual investigations: if they reveal systemic corruption within the government, the EU’s response must also address the problem systematically.
According to DW’s sources, these issues are discussed in both Berlin and Brussels, but behind closed doors. Tepelija questions this approach because, in her view, such diplomacy may serve governments more than citizens.
She also sees the lack of a direct connection with the people who should benefit from the reforms as a weakness of EU policy. When their concerns go unheard, pressure on governments to make profound changes weakens.
According to Tepelija, civic movements and mobilization in Albania need the EU to stand with them and press the government for accountability.
For Tepelija, this EU approach feeds “stabilocracy” instead of helping bring about genuine democratic transformation.
Nič, for his part, identifies another obstacle to political change in Albania: the lack of a credible opposition capable of genuinely contesting elections, including early elections.
He is concerned that early parliamentary elections could produce more or less the same situation and the same majority in parliament.
Citizens’ discontent, therefore, does not necessarily translate into a political alternative. That does not, however, relieve the government of its responsibility to respond to the protests. Nič warns that European capitals will be watching how it handles them.
For Albania’s EU membership, the views of the member states—not just the European Commission’s assessment—will be decisive.
Even Montenegro, despite being the most advanced country in the negotiations, is not assured of membership. The Commission believes its remaining chapters could be closed in 2026, but disputes with Croatia have shown that a member state can slow the process.
Germany wants enlargement to move forward as quickly as possible, preferably before France’s presidential election in 2027. Montenegro could be the first test of the EU’s ability to advance the process.
For Albania, the discussion focuses more on gradual integration, an approach supported by Germany and France that would bring candidate countries closer to the EU step by step before full membership.
Such a path could give Albania more time to change not only its laws but also the institutional culture citizens encounter in their lives and work.
According to Tepelija, that culture still does not accept dissenting views. She calls for greater autonomy, critical thinking and responsibility among civil servants, rather than obedience to superiors. For her, the success of integration is measured not only by the number of chapters closed, but also by the changes citizens feel in their daily lives.
