A recent analysis by climate specialists warns that over 451,000 people could lose their lives as a result of extreme temperatures during the next half of the year, due to a powerful El Niño phenomenon.
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The period analyzed begins in September 2026 and ends in February 2027, based on the historical correlation between rising temperatures and the increase in heat-related fatalities.
Tropical regions are considered most vulnerable. According to projections, the highest number of additional deaths will be recorded in Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India and Brazil. Meanwhile, the United States could also see around 3,500 more deaths as a result of high temperatures during this timeframe.
The forecast is the result of processing data from 24,378 locations across the globe. The research team compared temperatures and the number of additional deaths month by month during the years 1996–2025 and combined these findings with thermal projections linked to El Niño.
Scientists emphasize that the impact will not be concentrated solely on heat. The phenomenon is also expected to generate prolonged droughts, massive wildfires and flooding, while shocks to agricultural production could undermine food security and exert pressure on prices.
The daily “The Guardian” cites researchers according to whom these types of forecasts can help authorities take precautionary measures. Some of the possible actions include improving heat wave warning systems, making cooling centers available, increasing hospital staffing during the hottest periods and strengthening protections for workers operating outdoors.
Prof. Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and a lecturer at the University of Chicago, translated the alarming number into human terms. He said that “the estimate of 451,000 people is a number so large it can be staggering, but it is made up of parents and children, grandparents and neighbors, people who go to work, care for their families and live their lives.”
Study co-author Dr. Tamma Carleton from the University of California, Berkeley, underscored that more efficient preparation for emergency situations could save lives in the near term. She simultaneously warned that thermal conditions classified today as anomalies could become the norm over the coming decades.
El Niño is a natural climate cycle that causes pronounced shifts in temperature patterns and atmospheric circulation. However, researchers draw attention to the fact that it is unfolding on top of a climate base already warmed by greenhouse gas emissions.
Prof. Friederike Otto, from Imperial College London, described the dynamic as a massive redistribution of energy within the climate system and warned that rising temperatures could have further effects on health, food security and water reserves.
The chain effects could also include food supply. The World Food Programme has signaled that an intense El Niño has the potential to plunge around 50 million people into acute hunger and create inflationary pressure on food products.
