Gadi Eisenkot could count on Israel’s Arab parties to bring Benjamin Netanyahu’s rule to an end. They have said they are willing to vote for a new government even if they are not included in the cabinet. With a historic 19 seats, their role in negotiations over the next government could be decisive.
Netanyahu’s camp holds 53 seats, compared with 48 for the Jewish opposition parties. The Joint List, with 11 lawmakers, and Ra’am, with 8, bring the anti-Netanyahu bloc to 67 lawmakers. A governing majority requires 61 votes in the 120-member Knesset.
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Ahmad Tibi, a leading figure in Arab politics in Israel, has said the Joint List could support an opposition government but does not intend to join it. This would give the Arab parties political influence without making them responsible for military and foreign policy decisions they oppose.
Mansour Abbas’s Ra’am has also come out in support of Eisenkot. The party has announced that it will recommend him to President Isaac Herzog as a candidate to form the government.
Arab support, however, does not resolve divisions within the opposition. Avigdor Lieberman accepts that Eisenkot should receive the mandate but opposes joining a minority government dependent on Arab party votes. Such cooperation also poses political difficulties for former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, while Yair Golan has publicly defended it as an option.
Eisenkot’s conditions also make an agreement with the Joint List more difficult: recognition of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, and a clear position on Hamas.
Israeli media outlets Yedioth Ahronoth and Ynet report that a minority government approved with 49 votes in favor is also under consideration. Under this scenario, the 48 opposition lawmakers and one Ra’am lawmaker would vote in favor, 46 lawmakers from Netanyahu’s camp would vote against, and the remaining lawmakers would abstain.
No agreement has been reached on this scenario, and it offers no guarantee that the government would survive later votes, particularly on the budget and security issues.
Negotiations also remain open because of the position of the ultra-Orthodox United Torah party, which holds seven seats. On November 5, it decided to back neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot for prime minister. The party wants guarantees that religious school students will be exempt from military service, an issue that divides it from the opposition, particularly Lieberman.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu is focusing the debate on the legitimacy of cooperation with the Arab parties. He portrays a government dependent on them as a threat to Israel’s security and national identity. President Isaac Herzog has condemned attacks on these parties and their voters, defending their right to participate in the parliamentary process.
By November 11, Herzog must choose the leader he will give the mandate to form a government. That leader will have 28 days, with the possibility of a 14-day extension.
Four main paths are on the table: a minority government with outside support from Arab and ultra-Orthodox parties; a broader coalition including religious parties; a national unity government formed through an agreement with Likud; or new elections.
The elections have produced a majority opposed to Netanyahu remaining in power, but no agreement on the cabinet that would replace his. Eisenkot is considered the favorite to receive the mandate, although it remains unclear whether he can secure the support needed to form a government. Netanyahu has thus lost his parliamentary majority, but not yet power, while the Arab parties’ 19 seats could determine who becomes Israel’s next prime minister.
