A new scientific study estimates that the record-breaking heatwave that swept across Europe this June would have been “almost impossible” a few decades ago, highlighting that human-caused climate change is “clearly responsible” for the severity of this phenomenon.
The analysis was published by World Weather Attribution (WWA), an international network of researchers that examines the impact of climate change on extreme events, and describes this episode as “the most severe heatwave ever recorded in the region.”
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According to the report, in various European countries, including France, Spain, the United Kingdom and Switzerland, extreme temperatures shattered historic records within just a few days. In some cases, records were even broken twice within 24 hours, making the situation even more unusual.
To reach these conclusions, WWA scientists examined climate data related to the three hottest days and nights of this heatwave, comparing them with earlier periods such as 1976 and 2003. The analysis found that such extreme episodes would have been “almost impossible” 50 years ago.
According to them, over the past five decades the planet has warmed by around 1.1°C, significantly increasing both the likelihood and the intensity of heatwaves. In some cases, a heatwave comparable to the one in 1976 would today be around 3.5°C hotter.
The report also underlines the particular danger posed by high nighttime temperatures, as the body does not have the necessary time to recover from heat stress. The findings show that nighttime heat in Europe is around 100 times more likely today than it was in 2003.
Of the 854 cities included in the analysis across 30 European countries, 45% have recorded or are close to breaking records for “wet-bulb” temperature, an indicator that combines heat, humidity and other climatic elements that directly affect human health.
Experts warn that Europe, the continent warming faster than any other in the world, is facing increasingly frequent and severe heatwaves. The consequences, they say, are already being felt in daily life through school closures, transport disruptions, energy problems and a rise in fatal cases.
Preliminary data show that in some countries, hundreds of deaths have already been reported, including more than 200 in Spain within just a few days and dozens in France, while authorities expect these figures to rise.
Scientists stress that unless emissions from fossil fuels are quickly reduced, such extreme events will become more frequent and more dangerous in the years ahead.
“It is a question of what kind of future we want to have,” researcher Friederike Otto said, emphasizing the urgency of global climate action.
