Brussels and European governments had planned to end the year without any new electoral contests, so that attention could focus on key issues, particularly negotiations on the European Union’s next budget for the 2028–2034 period.
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But Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s decision to call early elections has disrupted those calculations and brought forward the uncertainty Brussels had anticipated for next year. At that point, voters will go to the polls in France, Poland and Italy, as well as in several other EU member states.
According to Corriere della Sera, a shift to the right in Madrid and Paris—especially if it strengthens the far right—would have major consequences for the future of the European project.
Although Sánchez has previously demonstrated that he is capable of making a political comeback, losing the election would have particular significance. In that case, the European Council would no longer include a socialist leader from one of the Union’s largest states.
“If Spain falls, one of the last remaining experiences of centre-left government in Europe will come to an end. If France followed suit in 2027, the Franco-Spanish axis—the progressive counterweight to the conservative Berlin-Rome-Warsaw axis—would disappear,” says Alberto Alemanno, a professor of EU law.
Nathalie Tocci, a professor at Johns Hopkins University, considers developments in Spain and France part of a broader picture. “The risk is a shift from a European integration project to a cooperation project: the direction of the EU would change,” she says.
Such a turn would not be limited to politics but would also have financial consequences. Experts warn that uncertainty comes at a cost, while one indication of this is the euro, which fell the previous day to its lowest level since May 2025.
