JD Vance is seriously considering not running for president of the United States in 2028. The U.S. vice president, until recently seen as the leading Republican favorite, has not set a deadline for his decision. A run remains a real possibility, and some supporters believe he is more likely to run than to bow out.
His doubts stem from Republican losses in the recent congressional elections, the unpopular war with Iran and divisions within the MAGA movement. CNN reports, citing about a dozen Vance allies and advisers, that he still wants to rebuild the movement that brought Donald Trump to power in 2024. However, he is no longer convinced he should be the one to lead it into the next election.
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A person close to Vance told CNN that neither decision would surprise him. He noted that the vice president is only 42 and could return later if political circumstances make success impossible now.
The conflict with Iran is among Vance’s main concerns. The war has caused discontent among American voters and damaged support for the Trump administration. Some of his allies see it as the biggest obstacle to a 2028 run. One told CNN the question is not whether Vance can run, but whether any Republican can win if the war continues. In his view, Republicans have no chance in 2028 unless the conflict in Iran ends.
The discontent became clearer after the November 3 elections, in which Republicans suffered heavy losses. On the social media platform X, Vance attributed the defeat to the war, writing that the president himself had said so the previous evening. He added that an honest discussion about the future of the Republican Party must start with that issue and asked whether the political cost of the conflict had been worth it.
The vice president’s stance did not sit well with Trump. Two people familiar with discussions within the administration said the president was angry that Vance had not publicly defended the decision to intervene militarily in Iran. In public, however, Trump tried to play down the rift. On Sunday, he said Vance had been right but should have added that, if the same decision had to be made again, the answer would be yes.
The uncertainty surrounding Vance comes as other Republican figures have begun positioning themselves for the presidential election. Among the names mentioned are Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Georgia Governor Brian Kemp. Conservative commentator Tucker Carlson has not ruled out an independent run, which could significantly affect the 2028 race.
Rich Baris, a pollster close to MAGA, believes Republicans face a deep crisis of trust among their supporters. He said MAGA “is dead” and that Vance will have to motivate those voters to believe again, because the Republican Party brand has completely lost credibility with them. Polls cited by CNN show declining Republican support among young people, men, Latino voters and white Americans without a college education.
Trump’s position could also weigh on Vance’s decision, as he has yet to confirm whether he will back him as his political successor. The president has told associates privately that he wants to wait and see how potential candidates position themselves before offering his support. Asked about Vance on “60 Minutes,” he replied: “Maybe, but not necessarily.”
Vance, on the other hand, can draw on a powerful network of donors, including billionaire Elon Musk and investor Peter Thiel.
