According to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, 2026 is likely to rank as the second-hottest year on record, behind the record-setting year of 2024.
Copernicus warns that global warming is accelerating because of human activity and the El Niño climate phenomenon. The service’s data show a 20 percent chance that temperatures in 2026 will match or exceed the 2024 record.
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Global temperatures are very likely to exceed the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. October was the hottest month ever recorded: the global average temperature reached 1.75 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. It was the third consecutive month above the 1.5-degree threshold.
Experts say El Niño is expected to strengthen in the coming months, amplifying the effects of global warming. This could lead to a new temperature record in 2027.
El Niño raises ocean temperatures and increases the risk of extreme heatwaves, droughts and floods.
The warning comes as countries prepare for the UN climate summit, COP31, in Turkey. At the same time, massive wildfires, floods and extreme heatwaves are becoming increasingly frequent around the world.
