The risk of limited military clashes between Russia and NATO countries is increasing as Moscow’s relations with Europe deteriorate. This is the assessment of the Danish Defence Intelligence Service in a report published on September 24.
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As reported by Corriere della Sera, a full-scale invasion of a NATO member state is considered highly unlikely. However, according to the Danish assessment, the likelihood of limited incidents is growing.
Moscow may seek to gauge the Alliance’s response by targeting infrastructure, carrying out sabotage or taking other actions that could fuel divisions among member states, the report says.
The document also warns of an intensification of Russia’s hybrid warfare against European countries. This includes cyberattacks, sabotage and interference aimed at weakening Europe’s military support for Ukraine.
The Danish service also raises concerns about the use of false-flag operations. In this context, drone attacks could be made to appear as if they were carried out by Ukraine.
According to the report, the Kremlin views the strengthening of Europe’s military capabilities as an increasingly serious threat and may see the coming years as a decisive period.
However, an attack on a NATO member would pose a risk to Russia, as it could prompt a joint military response from the Alliance.
The analysis identifies Moscow misjudging NATO’s readiness to respond collectively to an attack as the most dangerous scenario.
