A new report from Tongji University casts doubt on Berlin’s ability to pursue an independent foreign policy. According to Chinese analysts, Germany’s decision to align itself firmly behind the US course is stripping it of its decision-making independence.
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The institution founded in 1907 by German naval doctor Erich Paulun as the “German Medical School for Chinese in Shanghai” now serves as China’s primary center for German studies. At the time, Paulun could not have predicted that more than a century later, his school would become one of the country’s most prestigious universities, bearing the name “Tongji,” which symbolizes crossing a river together.
Each year, the university publishes a report aimed at measuring whether the two countries can still reach a new shore together. But in the words of Wu Huiping, professor and deputy director of the Center for German Studies, in this period of global upheaval, bilateral ties are facing a wave of uncertainty and deep structural differences.
A fragmented political landscape
The report is titled “Strategic Reorientation,” an effort to understand developments in Germany and China’s response to them. Yang Xiepu, a lecturer at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, emphasizes that the fragmentation and polarization of the German political spectrum are undermining the grand coalition governance between the CDU and SPD.
She argues that the traditional center has weakened as populist forces on the far right and far left gain ground. This has resulted in persistent economic weakness, declining industrial competitiveness, and a crisis of consumer confidence.
Although it seems logical for Berlin to strengthen trade ties with China, the world’s second-largest economy, Yang notes that the government is not prioritizing the economic dimension in its China policy. Instead, it is seeking a “new balance between security, values, and economic interests.”
The invisible influence of the US
In 2023, the federal government adopted a broad China strategy aligned with EU objectives. The document defined China as a “partner, competitor, and systemic rival.” According to that strategy, the goal was to engage with China “without endangering Germany’s liberal and democratic way of life, our sovereignty, our prosperity, as well as our security and our alliances with others,” Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock had stated.
However, China prefers to be seen primarily as a “partner” in that triad and criticizes Berlin’s lack of political autonomy. Yang acknowledges that the transatlantic alliance remains “a cornerstone of German foreign and security policy.” She adds that the American factor constitutes a crucial external variable shaping China’s relations with Germany, as well as with Europe as a whole.
In the context of great power rivalry, “the United States continuously pressures allies to tighten restrictions on China in the areas of technology, supply chains, and security.”
German naval presence viewed critically
For the first time, this year’s report includes a separate chapter on “security.” Editor Wu explains that the aim is to present China’s perspective on future developments.
A large portion of the German public accuses China of helping Russia in the war against Ukraine. China objects, emphasizing that it has not sent lethal weapons to either side and maintains strict control over dual-use goods, those that can have both civilian and military functions.
Zheng Chunrong, professor and director of the Center for German Studies at Tongji University, clarifies: “The German approach does not simply seek to put China in a difficult position with baseless expectations, but also to assign blame to China by burdening it with the responsibility of resolving the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.”
Germany’s growing military engagement in the Indo-Pacific region is another sensitive point. In August 2021, the frigate “Bayern” sailed through the South China Sea to confirm freedom of navigation and the maritime legal order. In 2024, the frigate “Baden-Württemberg” navigated through the contested Taiwan Strait, which Beijing considers internal waters separating China from a separatist region.
“From the Chinese perspective, Germany’s increased engagement in the Indo-Pacific region does not occur solely because of the area’s political and economic importance,” says Zheng, “but also represents an alignment with the US Indo-Pacific strategy.” China stresses that its relations with Germany do not target third parties nor are they subject to their influence. “The two countries should not develop their relations primarily within the framework of a power struggle with the US,” recommends expert Zheng.
/dw
