The climate phenomenon El Niño is showing unusual intensity, breaking ocean temperature records several months before reaching its predicted peak in December.
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Scientists warn that its impacts could be felt across the planet, with record temperatures, prolonged droughts, floods and extreme weather events during 2027.
According to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), average weekly sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific have reached the highest levels ever recorded.
September measurements showed that temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific had exceeded even those of 2015, when one of the strongest El Niño episodes on record occurred.
Comparisons with historic events in 1972-1973, 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and 2015-2016 show that the current warming is more widespread across the entire Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico.
Part of this increase is linked to the long-term warming of the oceans, although scientists emphasize that climate change is not the only factor influencing the intensity of the phenomenon.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) explains that there is currently no definitive evidence that climate change is making El Niño episodes more frequent or more intense.
However, the impact of global warming on this phenomenon remains one of the most important areas of scientific research.
What is known is that El Niño releases massive amounts of heat from the oceans into the atmosphere. Combined with human-caused global warming, this process could rank 2026 among the hottest years ever recorded, while exceptionally high temperatures are expected to continue through 2027.
According to the BBC, the broader consequences of the phenomenon are expected to emerge next year, although the first impacts are already visible in some regions.
History has shown that strong El Niño episodes can cause dramatic changes in weather patterns, but the intensity of the phenomenon does not necessarily determine the severity of the consequences in every country.
During the 1997-1998 episode, Southeast Asia faced severe droughts and massive forest fires, while East Africa experienced devastating floods.
The phenomenon also contributed to 1998 being recorded as the hottest year in measurement history up to that time.
A similar situation repeated during 2015-2016, when droughts and fires struck Southeast Asia again, while Southern Africa experienced one of its worst drought periods in decades, causing a major humanitarian crisis.
Another significant impact relates to tropical cyclone activity. Strong El Niño episodes typically limit hurricane formation in the Atlantic, while favoring their increase in some areas of the Pacific. This pattern has also been observed during 2026.
The World Meteorological Organization warns that droughts and floods have begun affecting some regions, adding to concerns about food security, especially in East Africa and the Asia-Pacific region.
The risk is mainly linked to damage to agricultural production, water shortages and worsening living conditions in communities most vulnerable to climate change.
According to forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), El Niño is expected to peak in December.
However, its consequences could last beyond that point, influencing global temperatures and rainfall distribution during 2027, at a time when the planet is already facing high levels of global warming.
