The world’s most important maritime routes are entering an increasingly troubled phase, as international shipping faces a security environment that is far more difficult to manage.
Specialists point out that the risks are no longer limited to piracy and terrorism, but now also include rivalries between states, military clashes, organized crime activity and human trafficking.
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Nikolaos-Alketas Drosos, Maritime Commercial Manager of the EOS Risk Group for Greece and Cyprus, says the traditional way of assessing risk no longer matches the new conditions on the ground.
According to him, the Strait of Hormuz remains the most sensitive chokepoint for global trade. Clashes between the United States and Iran over the passage of commercial vessels increase the possibility that even a single incident could turn into an international crisis.
The Red Sea also remains a high-risk area. Although attacks by Houthi rebels have declined compared with previous months, the threat to ships with real or perceived links to Israel continues to persist. At the same time, in the Gulf of Aden there are signs of a return of Somali piracy, where some commercial ships are still being held by pirate groups.
The situation in the South China Sea is also causing concern, as China has intensified patrols near Scarborough Shoal, an area also claimed by the Philippines. Experts assess that this increases the likelihood of incidents between Chinese, Philippine and American forces, although this does not necessarily mean that a conflict is imminent.
In the Baltic Sea, uncertainty has grown after footage was released of a Russian liquefied natural gas tanker equipped with heavy machine guns. This development has raised doubts about the dividing line between civilian and military transport in the region.
Another challenge is linked to the increase in migration flows from Libya to Crete. This development is increasing pressure on maritime authorities and European security agencies, while the importance of surveillance in the Eastern Mediterranean is becoming ever greater.
Drosos stresses that Greece is directly affected by every development in these areas, because it is the country with the largest merchant fleet in the world. Greek-owned ships operate daily in high-risk regions, facing higher insurance premiums, the need for uninterrupted monitoring and new challenges in risk management.
According to him, the time when the safety of a sea voyage was determined mainly by the weather is over. Today, every voyage requires continuous assessment of geopolitical developments and the ability to adapt to rapidly changing circumstances.
In conclusion, he underlines that the main problem is not only the growing number of threats, but the fact that crises in the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, the Baltic Sea, the South China Sea, the Eastern Mediterranean and the Caribbean are unfolding simultaneously. According to him, this reality is creating an interconnected web of risks that could directly affect global trade, economies and energy security. He adds that the next major crisis may not begin in a capital city, but on a commercial ship that is in the wrong place at the wrong time.
