Ten years after the historic referendum of June 23, 2016, Great Britain continues to grapple with the consequences of Brexit. Although its opponents predicted an immediate economic collapse that never happened, many analyses conclude that the process has produced lasting effects on the country’s economy, trade, investment and political stability.
The British economy did not collapse overnight, contrary to the alarms of the time. But according to experts, the effect of Brexit has built up gradually over the course of this decade, leaving the economy smaller than it would have been had the country remained in the European Union.
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Economic estimates vary, but the long-term damage is calculated at between 4% and 8% of Gross Domestic Product. Britain’s Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts that the new post-Brexit trade regime will reduce the country’s productivity by around 4% in the long term. As a result, lower tax revenues, less room for public investment and weaker prospects for wage growth are expected.
The most visible blow has been seen in trade. Leaving the European single market brought border checks, more bureaucracy, new rules and delays in the movement of goods. Although Britain signed new trade agreements with various countries around the world, none of them managed to replace the advantages offered by proximity to the European market, which remains the country’s largest trading partner.
Agriculture, the food industry and seafood exporters are among the sectors that have felt the new costs and administrative barriers most sharply, weakening their competitiveness. For a large number of small businesses, the procedures introduced after Brexit have been so costly that they have been forced to limit or halt trade with European Union countries.
The investment climate was also affected. After the referendum, many companies decided to delay or freeze their plans because of uncertainty over future relations between London and Brussels. Although investment partially recovered in the following years, its pace remained below expectations. Some international companies shifted operations to other European countries, while cities such as Amsterdam and Dublin benefited by attracting financial activity that had previously been carried out in London.
Controlling immigration was another central promise of Brexit supporters, but developments proved more complicated. Immigration from European Union countries fell sharply, but it was replaced by rising migration from countries outside the European bloc. This has changed the composition of the labor market, especially in healthcare, social care, hospitality and the food industry, sectors that had previously relied mainly on European workers.
Politically, the consequences have been profound. Since the referendum, Britain has gone through a long period of instability, with frequent changes of governments and prime ministers. The Conservative Party has repeatedly faced internal divisions over Brexit, while the Labour opposition has also struggled to define a clear line.
The latest polls show that a considerable share of Britons believe Brexit has delivered weaker results than expected. In some surveys, support for a new rapprochement with the European Union or even reintegration has exceeded the 50% mark, although there is currently no concrete political plan to return to European structures.
The picture has been further complicated by the announcement of Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation, pushing the country toward its seventh prime minister since the 2016 referendum. His possible successor, Andy Burnham, has described Brexit as harmful, but has acknowledged that reversing it is a far more difficult process than leaving in the first place.
Although recent governments have spoken about reshaping relations with the European Union, London has ruled out returning to the single market, the customs union and the free movement of people, precisely the mechanisms that experts consider most important for recovering economic losses.
Ten years after the referendum, Brexit remains one of the most debated issues in Great Britain. According to many analysts, the greatest cost is not seen only in the economic figures, but also in the missed opportunities: the investments that were never made, the projects that were delayed and the political energy consumed by a process that promised more control and independence, but that for many citizens has brought greater uncertainty and complication.
