A “Super El Niño” could form in the coming years and rank among the strongest episodes of recent decades, scientists warn, adding that this would significantly increase the risk of extreme heatwaves, major wildfires, droughts and floods in many parts of the planet.
In this context, a new study published in the scientific journal Science Advances has analyzed a highly controversial proposal: the use of solar geoengineering to mitigate the effects of this phenomenon.
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In the study, researchers from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography focused on a method known as “marine cloud brightening.” This approach involves spraying particles into clouds over the ocean so they reflect more solar radiation back into space and temporarily lower temperatures at the Earth’s surface.
Because of the risks that could accompany such an intervention, the researchers did not conduct tests under real-world conditions. Instead, they relied on climate models built around the massive wildfires that struck Australia in 2019-2020. The smoke produced by those fires created more reflective clouds, which helped cool the Pacific and contributed to the development of conditions similar to the La Niña phenomenon.
According to the simulations carried out, if this technique were applied in the early stages of a Super El Niño, it could reduce up to 40 percent of the phenomenon’s most severe consequences, while at the same time strengthening La Niña’s cooling effects.
However, the authors of the study stress that this work does not constitute a recommendation for the use of the technology, but is intended only to pave the way for further research in the future.
“This is only a proof of concept. The only thing we have shown is that it is worth studying further,” said climatologist Kate Ricke, one of the study’s authors.
Other experts caution that the technology needed to put this method into practice does not yet exist at the required scale, while the potential consequences could be unpredictable. Some fear that intervening in the climate could produce a La Niña far stronger than any episode recorded so far, with serious consequences such as extreme rainfall, flooding and drought in different regions.
Alongside the technical obstacles, ethical questions also remain open: who would make the decision to use such a technology, and whether it would divert attention from the main goal, which is reducing the greenhouse gas emissions that are driving global warming.
According to the broad consensus among scientists, the safest path to limiting climate change remains cutting pollution and emissions, while geoengineering continues to be seen as an experimental field that requires much more study before it can be considered for practical use.
