Over the coming days, Israelis and Americans will vote in two elections that could have a direct impact on the war with Iran, security in the Middle East and the global economy.
First, Israeli citizens will elect a new parliament, while a week later voters in the United States will determine the future composition of Congress. Although the elections are being held on two continents and under different systems, their consequences could be closely intertwined.
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The result in Israel could influence developments in Middle Eastern conflicts, while the new composition of the US Congress could determine the level of military aid to Israel and the direction of Washington’s foreign policy.
Another link between the two votes is the presence of around half a million Israelis with American passports, who are entitled to participate in both processes. Marc Zell, chairman of Republicans Overseas Israel, says their votes could be decisive in close races in the US, including the Senate race in Michigan.
Iran, the main issue in the political confrontation
The conflict with Iran is at the center of the political debate in both countries.
During the campaign, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has left open the possibility of further strikes against Iran. He has once again highlighted claims about the danger posed by Iran’s nuclear program and called for the overthrow of the Islamist regime, seeking to consolidate his image as a defender of national security.
Netanyahu’s political standing was severely damaged after the October 7, 2023 attacks on Israel led by Hamas.
US President Donald Trump has also fueled speculation about a possible offensive. He has backed Netanyahu’s reelection and said the two leaders should “finish the job” in Iran soon.
However, signals from Washington have not been consistent. Some sources claim that Trump asked Israel not to carry out new attacks before the US elections, as another rise in energy prices could hurt Republicans.
Meanwhile, speculation has emerged in Israel that Netanyahu may try to retain political control even if he fails to achieve the desired result by proposing the creation of a national unity government.
A defeat would expose him to official investigations into the government’s actions before the October 7 attacks, as well as legal proceedings related to corruption allegations.
Gadi Eisenkot, a former army chief and Netanyahu’s political rival, has ruled out joining such a government. He describes Iran as an existential threat to Israel, but warns that the war must not be expanded for political interests.
The possibility of a Trump strike after the votes
Some analysts believe Trump may face fewer obstacles to ordering new strikes after the midterm elections, when electoral pressure has eased.
According to this assessment, the US president may seek a decisive military victory before withdrawing from the conflict. Some experts believe that the economic damage inflicted on Iran by the war and sanctions could lead to the regime’s collapse, while others consider this an uncertain expectation that has not been fulfilled in the past either.
A Western diplomat quoted in the analysis assesses that after the elections, Trump may attach greater importance to his political legacy and seek concrete results in foreign policy.
But a change of government in Israel may not share the same interest in another offensive. Trump has warned that if Netanyahu does not remain in power, the United States may be forced to manage the confrontation with Iran on its own.
Iranian authorities are closely following the polls in the US. Tehran has warned that new attacks could be followed by strikes against US military bases, warships, airports, pipelines, energy infrastructure and water desalination plants.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said that a new offensive would endanger civilian lives, the well-being of countries in the region and the global economy.
Energy and the impact on the world economy
The rising cost of living has become one of the main issues in the US elections. The confrontation with Iran has contributed to higher energy prices, particularly after Tehran interfered with maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key corridor for global oil transportation.
Israeli voters are also facing high prices and low wages, while increased defense spending is putting pressure on public finances.
Before the elections, Trump took several measures to ease economic pressure. Among them was the lifting of some sanctions on Russia, in the hope that additional oil supplies would help lower prices. He has also pressured Ukraine to accept concessions, seeking a diplomatic agreement that he could present as a foreign policy success.
This approach has caused dissatisfaction within Republican ranks as well.
Republican Senator Thom Tillis said the most effective way to lower energy prices was to end the conflict with Iran, not to support Russian President Vladimir Putin.
US support for Israel faces pressure
The war with Iran, as well as Israeli operations in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, has weakened the traditional bipartisan consensus in the United States in support of Israel.
Some Democratic candidates are calling for US military aid to Israel to be limited or halted. Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic candidate for the Senate in Michigan, said that a country that pushes the US toward wars in which it should not be involved cannot be considered a reliable ally.
Brad Lander, a Democratic candidate for Congress in New York, visited the West Bank a few days before the elections. During his stay there, he took part in olive harvesting with Palestinians and was briefly stopped by Israeli forces.
A stronger Democratic presence in Congress would give them the opportunity to use institutional powers to limit military spending and aid to Israel. However, Trump would retain significant executive powers, including the presidential veto, meaning that a large part of the decisions concerning the conflict would remain in his hands.
Votes with consequences beyond borders
A Netanyahu defeat could lead Israel into a new political phase, affecting relations with Washington and its approach to Iran. If Democrats increase their number of seats in Congress, Israeli military operations could face greater political scrutiny and unconditional support could be called into question.
In the other scenario, a new joint US-Israeli offensive against Iran could trigger retaliation and an expansion of the conflict across the region. The consequences could extend to energy supplies, international trade and global security.
Therefore, the elections in Israel and the United States could determine not only the political fate of the leaders, but also the direction of the war in the Middle East and its impact on the world economy.
