A severe drought could hit the Amazon as a powerful El Niño is forecast to peak at the end of the year, coinciding with the end of the dry season.
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According to forecasts cited by The Guardian, El Niño is expected to reach its greatest intensity from October to December. During this period, Amazon rivers usually fall to their lowest levels, while vegetation becomes more vulnerable to water shortages.
Scientists estimate that high temperatures, low rainfall and drought could significantly increase the risk of fires, causing further damage to the rainforest.
Concern is particularly high because of the Amazon’s role as one of the planet’s most important ecosystems. In addition to absorbing significant amounts of carbon dioxide, its vegetation helps regulate the climate, water cycles and rainfall across vast areas of South America.
Brazil’s meteorological agency has said that El Niño could delay the start of the rainy season in the Amazon, as well as cause temperatures to rise and river levels to fall.
Such conditions would facilitate the spread of fires. According to experts, deforestation, agriculture, mining and climate change have already damaged the forest, making it more vulnerable to fires and extreme temperatures.
Severe droughts, falling river levels, fires and significant consequences for the ecosystem were also recorded during the three previous powerful El Niño episodes in 1997-98, 2015-16 and 2023-24.
The consequences could extend beyond the final months of the year. Experts cited in the report explain that ocean warming can have a delayed impact on the global climate, meaning difficult conditions could continue throughout 2027.
Carlos Nobre, a professor at the University of São Paulo and one of Brazil’s leading climate researchers, has said that the Amazon must prepare for a severe drought lasting at least until the beginning of 2027.
Indigenous communities are also taking measures in preparation for a difficult season. In several regions, local teams have been set up to help combat fires.
The consequences of a prolonged drought would not affect only the forest. Agriculture and livestock farming could face water shortages, deteriorating pasture quality and increased heat stress among animals.
Farmers in Brazil are preparing for a difficult period, while experts are raising concerns about the potential effects on soybean production and other crops.
Meanwhile, the UN has warned that the effects of El Niño could increase food insecurity for millions of people worldwide.
