Marine Le Pen has for years set her sights on the French presidency, but just as that goal seemed closer than ever, she was barred from running. This has shifted the focus to Jordan Bardella, the 30-year-old rising rapidly on the political scene.
With Emmanuel Macron nearing the end of his second and final term, France is due to elect a new president in 2027. The first round of voting is scheduled for April 18.
Të lidhura
None found
At this point, the candidate of the far-right National Rally (RN) is seen as the favorite to succeed Macron. A recent first-round poll shows RN backed by between 31% and 36% of voters, regardless of the candidate’s name. An absolute majority is needed to secure victory; otherwise, the election goes to a runoff on May 2.
However, it is still not certain who will represent RN. Jordan Bardella, who currently leads the party, is in that position because Marine Le Pen is not allowed to run after being found guilty last year of misappropriating European Union funds. She was also given a fine and a four-year prison sentence under house arrest, with two years suspended. That sentence will not be enforced until the appeals process is completed, while she continues to hold her seat in the French National Assembly.
Blanche Leridon, director of French studies at the Institut Montaigne think tank in Paris, told DW that Le Pen’s removal from the front line may not be as damaging to RN as first thought.
According to her, Jordan Bardella is already more popular than Marine Le Pen. She links this to several factors: his young age, which distances him from the party’s more controversial past under Jean-Marie Le Pen; the fact that he does not carry the Le Pen surname; his ability to perform well on social media; and his polished image, which allows voters to project their political expectations onto him.
Handpicked by Le Pen herself as her political heir and appointed party spokesman when he was just 21, Bardella has built a more contemporary profile. His presence on TikTok, where he has 2.3 million followers, has helped the party reach younger voters. It has also helped soften RN’s image, once associated with the open racism and antisemitism of the Jean-Marie Le Pen era, the late father of Marine Le Pen.
Leridon stresses that even if Marine Le Pen wins her appeal and returns to the presidential race, Bardella will not disappear from the political scene.
She says he will remain a key campaign figure, as the anticipated future prime minister. In her view, the two could frame the race as a kind of joint ticket, American-style, a formula never before tested in France. That, she adds, would make them even stronger.
Meanwhile, in a campaign expected to be dominated by the economy, pension reform and immigration, Bardella has begun to show some differences from his mentor.
Even so, on immigration he maintains a very hard line. In June, he said he would end the automatic granting of French citizenship by birth, a measure Donald Trump failed to impose in the United States.
“Automatically acquiring French citizenship is no longer justified in a world of 8 billion people, at a time when daily evidence of our inability to integrate and assimilate is increasing,” he said.
Under Bardella’s proposal, children of foreign parents would be able to apply for French citizenship only after turning 18. He also wants free movement in the Schengen area to remain only for citizens of European countries, which would imply creating a “double border” with checks both on French territory and at the EU’s borders. Both ideas would face major legal obstacles.
On the economic front, meanwhile, Bardella has pushed RN toward a more liberal and business-friendly approach since taking over the party. He has built ties with leaders in the economic sector, an area Marine Le Pen had not placed at the forefront.
Thibault Muzergues, political director at the Shared Ground organization and author of the book La droite woke (“The Woke Right”), says Marine Le Pen’s political career has been built on the clash between elites and the people. In his view, Bardella has understood that the debate has now shifted toward a more classic left-right divide.
One indication of this is his tendency to move away from Le Pen’s promises to preserve France’s existing pension system, a stance that may appeal more to the middle class than to the working class.
Muzergues also notes that Bardella’s personal background carries particular weight with the French public.
According to him, Bardella comes from a middle-class family but grew up in a poor area. He was not born “in a castle” like Le Pen, Muzergues says, describing his life as a story of social ascent. As an example, he mentions Bardella’s relationship with the Franco-Italian princess Maria Carolina of Bourbon-Two Sicilies.
He adds that, unlike Marine Le Pen, who often strikes a critical tone toward the wealthy and large corporations, Bardella appears more willing to listen to their interests.
“He is not necessarily seeking the approval of big business, but he pays attention to it, because he is someone aiming to reach the top.”
According to Klaus Welle, former secretary-general of the European Parliament, neither Bardella nor Le Pen will try to rely on the American MAGA movement.
“I think they will be very careful to avoid that, because it has proved counterproductive. Both Elon Musk’s intervention in favor of AfD and JD Vance’s visit to Hungary had the opposite effect. On the contrary, they will try to present themselves as an original political force,” Welle said.
However, he believes it may be easier for Bardella to build bridges with like-minded political forces in Europe, especially with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
Blanche Leridon believes that support from Meloni could strengthen RN, but in her view the more decisive issue will be foreign interference and disinformation.
“The issue of foreign interference will undoubtedly be one of the main themes of the campaign, just as it has been since the 2017 presidential election,” she said.
She notes that France has put in place strong mechanisms against foreign interference, including the Viginum service for detecting disinformation, but believes these tools will not be enough.
“Social media and the regulation of the digital space will be a major battleground to prevent massive interference operations aimed either at creating chaos during the campaign or favoring a particular candidate.”
If Marine Le Pen is not RN’s candidate, as most analysts predict, her influence in RN’s political “family business” will weaken, but it will not disappear completely.
Although Bardella is gaining ground in popularity, Klaus Welle believes he still has significant shortcomings.
“Bardella has major weaknesses, especially his lack of experience, which may become more visible in the final stage of the race. I think this is a very open contest and that more moderate political forces may still have the advantage. It should not be taken for granted that a lead in the polls will automatically translate into a presidential victory.”
Although the courts will determine who RN’s presidential candidate will be, the final decision on France’s next president will be made by French voters. /DW
