Democrats emerged victorious in the United States midterm elections and took control of Congress, dealing a serious blow to President Donald Trump’s Republican Party.
The result was interpreted as an expression of dissatisfaction with the Trump administration and the policies it has pursued over the past two years. Losses for the sitting president’s party are not unusual in midterm elections, but the scale of this defeat has raised questions about the Republicans’ political future. A BBC analysis identifies five factors that influenced the result.
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The first concerns the economy. Inflation and rising prices for food, fuel and energy strained American household budgets. According to polls cited in the analysis, 79% of voters said inflation had caused them moderate or severe hardship over the past year.
More than 60% of respondents linked higher prices to President Trump’s policies. Economic dissatisfaction led some voters to change their choice and vote for the Democrats this time.
The second factor was the war with Iran, which the US and Israel began in February. The conflict, together with Tehran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupted international energy markets and drove up fuel prices.
The military intervention lacked support among a large share of Americans: about 63% of respondents thought the US had been wrong to decide to intervene against Iran.
Another reason was the way Democrats ran their campaigns. Their candidates focused on the cost of living, healthcare and corruption—issues that directly affected voters. In Texas, James Talarico drew attention with his message, while in South Carolina, former pediatrician Annie Andrews put problems in the healthcare system at the center of her campaign.
In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed built his central message around the need to combat the influence of money in politics. Meanwhile, some Republican candidates were criticized for weak campaigns that paid too little attention to voters’ concrete concerns.
The fourth factor was dissatisfaction with President Trump himself, which weighed on Republican candidates. Voters held the White House directly responsible for rising prices and the war with Iran. Ratings for the president had also fallen among Republican voters.
Trump called for the elections to be seen as a vote of support for him, urging people to imagine his name on the ballot. That approach, however, appears to have had the opposite effect.
The fifth factor concerns a shift in the preferences of African American voters. In the 2024 presidential election, Trump had received more support from these communities than in previous elections, but that trend appears to have reversed in the latest vote.
Democrats also won all three Hispanic-majority House districts along the Texas–Mexico border.
