Undersea cables that connect the Persian Gulf countries to international communications networks have become the focus of Tehran’s threats against critical telecommunications infrastructure in the region.
In its analysis, maritime security company EOS Marine refers to a warning issued on October 19 by a spokesperson for Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. He said that if a new conflict with the United States breaks out, infrastructure running through the Strait of Hormuz could be targeted.
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The strategic significance of the warning stems from the reach of these networks. The Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, two highly strategic maritime corridors, are crossed by a significant number of cables connecting the Persian Gulf countries to global networks. Damage to or disruption of these cables could affect not only the region, but also international communications and services that rely on these connections.
Despite the threat, EOS Marine experts consider it unlikely that Iran or the Houthi rebels will deliberately and successfully disrupt the cables over the next month.
The assessment was authored by John Walker, head of consulting services at EOS Marine, drawing on his experience in seabed operations and intelligence analysis. He says the central question is whether the warnings could translate into a real operation targeting a specific objective with a reliable outcome.
Precisely locating the undersea cables is one of the main challenges. General information about their routes is not enough to ensure that a targeted intervention would succeed.
The analysis cites dragging anchors as one possible way to damage the cables. But geographical conditions and operational constraints make it difficult to carry out an attack that is both deliberate and effective. As a result, EOS Marine does not consider Iran or the Houthis’ ability to deliberately disrupt these networks to be certain.
The company clarifies that its conclusions apply to the short term and do not rule out the possibility of cable damage. However, it distinguishes between the intent to put pressure on adversaries and the actual ability to strike undersea infrastructure accurately.
Although Iran’s warning has fueled concerns about the security of communications worldwide, the analysis concludes that a successful operation against undersea cables would have to overcome significant obstacles.
