Serbian Foreign Minister Marko Gjuriq described the decision to launch the Strategic Dialogue between Serbia and the United States as one of the most significant steps in recent years. The first meeting of this mechanism is scheduled to take place on Friday, July 17.
However, it remains unclear whether the energy issue constitutes a prerequisite for the start of a similar strategic dialogue with Kosovo.
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Analyst Sadri Ramabaja, speaking to “Bota sot”, stresses that this dialogue does not diminish the importance of the American alliance with Kosovo, but signals that Serbia is drawing more diplomatic attention due to its geopolitical position in the region.
Ramabaja explains that the announcement of the US-Serbia Strategic Dialogue carries considerable diplomatic weight, but should not be read as a shift of American support from Kosovo towards Belgrade. Nevertheless, it contains messages that Prishtina cannot ignore.
He clarifies that Serbia gaining diplomatic ground does not necessarily mean it is surpassing Kosovo in terms of strategic alliance. Despite these moves, Kosovo continues to be one of the United States’ closest partners in the Balkans, evidenced by the presence of KFOR with a US-led component, intensive cooperation in the security sector, historical support for independence, and investments in security institutions.
According to him, what is happening is that Belgrade is securing a broader operating space in Washington. This does not make Serbia a closer ally than Kosovo, but shows the US effort to engage it at a higher level due to its regional importance and geopolitical positioning.
Ramabaja explains that the US is undertaking this strategic dialogue with Serbia to steer it more firmly toward Western policies and to curb Russian and Chinese influence, while it already sees Kosovo as a close partner. He lists several reasons for this approach: first, Serbia is the largest state in the Western Balkans and exerts influence in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Kosovo. Second, the US administration aims to reduce the influence of Moscow and Beijing in Belgrade by creating regular communication mechanisms on energy, economy, security, and regional policy. Third, the US traditionally conducts strategic dialogues with states it wishes to bring closer to its own policies.
A paradox that stands out, according to the analyst, is that precisely because Serbia is not considered a full ally, Washington spends more diplomatic energy trying to draw it in. On the other hand, Kosovo is perceived as a very close partner, and most cooperation passes through existing security and diplomatic channels.
Ramabaja further points out that the lack of a strategic dialogue with the US could turn into a handicap for Kosovo, as Serbia gains more attention and institutionalized coordination in Washington. In diplomacy, he emphasizes, it is not only the quality of relations that matters, but also the institutional level at which they are cultivated. A Strategic Dialogue usually involves regular ministerial meetings, sectoral working groups, long-term coordination, and joint planning.
If Belgrade secures this platform, while Prishtina does not, the perception is created that Serbia is receiving more institutional attention in the American capital. However, this does not change the reality that Kosovo remains an important partner of the US, but it falls to Prishtina to engage more diplomatically.
Ramabaja interprets this as a signal that relations with the US cannot rely forever on the historical legacy of 1999. He notes that American foreign policy, particularly towards European states and within the transatlantic NATO alliance, has undergone a complete overhaul, especially after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and the return of Donald Trump to the White House. Despite this, the Western Balkans, just like the Baltics, remains a neuralgic point and an area of UK strategic interest.
Therefore, the strategic partnership needs to be continuously renewed. Prishtina, he suggests, could aim to elevate relations to the level of a Strategic Dialogue, a joint agenda on defense and the military industry, cooperation in energy, artificial intelligence, and the digital economy, as well as closer coordination on regional policy.
So far, there is no official indication that the energy issue constitutes a condition or motive for the start of a US-Kosovo Strategic Dialogue. Unlike Serbia, Kosovo is not energy-dependent on Russia, so a future dialogue of this kind would be more likely to focus on security, defense, economic development, technological transformation, and Euro-Atlantic integration, rather than on energy security.
In conclusion, Ramabaja underlines that the US-Serbia Strategic Dialogue does not constitute a replacement of Kosovo, but demonstrates the necessity for Prishtina to strengthen its partnership with Washington through a new strategic agenda. The message, according to him, is multifaceted: the US does not intend to leave Serbia outside the Western orbit; Washington is investing in regional stability by engaging even with actors that are not formal allies; Serbia is benefiting from a new communication channel with the American administration; and Kosovo should not take American support for granted, but must nourish it with new political and strategic initiatives.
He adds that these developments in the Washington-Belgrade relationship must be understood correctly and outside the propaganda campaigns based on daily agendas of opposition forces. The Strategic Dialogue does not mean that Serbia is replacing Kosovo as a US partner in the Balkans, but shows that Washington is institutionalizing relations with Belgrade at a higher level. For Kosovo, this serves as a reminder that the historical partnership must be complemented by a new strategic agenda that would deepen cooperation in security, energy, technology, investments, and long-term political coordination. If Prishtina and Tirana aim to maintain their weight in American policy for the Balkans, it would be reasonable for Kosovo to work towards establishing an institutionalized strategic dialogue with the United States as well.
