Super El Niño Approaches Its Peak: Ocean Temperature Anomalies Hit Records, Link to Nepal Catastrophe Examined

The scientific community is closely monitoring the powerful El Niño phenomenon, as ocean temperature deviations are approaching extremely high values.

Oceanographic data and models updated through August 26, 2026, signal that the planet may be near the acute phase of one of the most intense ocean warming episodes recorded in recent decades.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center estimates that the likelihood of this phenomenon maintaining very strong intensity through autumn and winter is over 90 percent, while impacts may persist into spring 2027.

One of the key signals is the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI). Forecasts indicate a 69 percent probability that temperatures in the central Niño 3.4 region will touch or exceed the anomaly of +2.5°C.

If these forecasts are confirmed, it would be an episode of extraordinary intensity, possibly stronger than some historic events of 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2015-2016.

The severity of the situation is also evident in measurements from the European Copernicus Climate Change Service and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Global average sea surface temperatures are being recorded at historic levels, while in the eastern Pacific, especially in the Niño 1+2 region, thermal anomalies have exceeded +2.9°C above average.

This massive heat could affect food systems, agriculture, and maritime shipping. Among possible consequences are changes in monsoon rainfall in Asia, unfavorable agricultural conditions in parts of Southeast Asia, and difficulties for shipping in the Panama Canal due to falling water levels in Gatún Lake.

El Niño is linked to a major disruption of the ocean-atmosphere interaction over the equatorial Pacific.

Under normal conditions, trade winds blow from east to west, pushing warm waters toward the western Pacific. Meanwhile, along the South American coast, cooler, nutrient-rich waters upwell to the surface.

During El Niño, trade winds weaken and warm waters shift eastward. This process is accompanied by profound changes in atmospheric circulation and rainfall distribution across the globe.

Eventually, Pacific temperature fluctuations can influence air currents, the placement of pressure systems, and storm activity in different parts of the world.

Attention has also returned to the Himalayan region, following a powerful flood reported on August 26 along the Bhote Koshi River, on the border between Tibet and Nepal.

A massive flow of water, mud, and debris swept through the mountain areas of Timure and Syabrubesi, damaging infrastructure, including police posts and customs facilities, and disrupting cross-border traffic.

The flood also caused problems at several hydropower plants along the Trishuli River, as authorities kept downstream areas on alert.

Initial reports link the source of the event to a process that occurred at high altitudes in the Tibet region. The water wave, which in some narrow mountain gorges may have reached several meters in height, spread with great speed.

Is El Niño the cause of the catastrophe?

Despite the coincidence in timing, El Niño cannot be identified as the direct cause of the flooding on the Bhote Koshi River.

One possible explanation for such an event is the phenomenon known as GLOF (Glacial Lake Outburst Flood), a flood caused by the rupture of a glacial lake.

In these cases, the collapse of an ice or rock mass can damage a natural ice or moraine dam and instantly release a large amount of water accumulated at high altitudes.

In the long term, climate change plays a significant role in this process. Global warming is accelerating the retreat of Himalayan glaciers and creating conditions for more glacial lakes to form, some of which may be unstable.

For this reason, El Niño can be seen as a background climatic factor, but not as the direct cause of the disaster in Nepal. The origin of such an event must be sought in local hydrogeological and mechanical factors of the mountainous terrain.