We have never seen such a signal before”/ El Niño raises the alarm, 2027 could be the hottest year on record

An El Niño episode that is forming in the Pacific Ocean could turn out to be one of the strongest recorded in modern times. The warning comes from experts at the Met Office, the United Kingdom’s meteorological service.

This natural phenomenon is expected to drive up the planet’s average temperature and increase the likelihood of extreme weather events. Combined with global warming caused by human activity, El Niño could make 2027 the leading candidate for the temperature record, surpassing 2024, which currently holds the record.

Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, has described the situation as “an unprecedented event.”

“I have never seen such an intense El Niño signal in our forecasts,” he said.

Recent data show that sea-surface temperatures in a key area of the Pacific are more than 2°C above average. According to projections, this anomaly could exceed 3°C later this year, when the phenomenon reaches its peak.

Such a development would represent the highest level recorded since 1950. Experts also estimate that it could be the strongest episode of this phenomenon since the 19th century.

Significant reserves of heat have also been detected deep in the ocean. In some parts of the Pacific, water at around 100 meters below the surface is approximately 8°C warmer than normal. This energy could act as a heat reservoir and further intensify El Niño.

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts about a year.

During this phenomenon, trade winds that normally move from east to west across the Pacific weaken and, in some cases, change direction. As a result, warm waters shift eastward.

The heat accumulated in the ocean is transferred into the atmosphere, affecting global temperatures and changing rainfall patterns across a large number of regions around the world.

A situation is classified as El Niño when sea-surface temperatures in a designated area of the Pacific are at least 0.5°C above average. Currently, recorded values are far higher than this threshold.

The effects of the phenomenon are not confined to the Pacific. The distribution of heat and changes in atmospheric wind circulation can affect weather conditions on different continents.

Experts have already identified several signs that may be linked to El Niño. In South Asia, monsoon rainfall in India was below average during 2026.

Meanwhile, changes in wind circulation over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic could affect hurricane activity.

Australia could face a greater risk of droughts and wildfires, while Peru and Ecuador could experience more intense rainfall and flooding.

The southern United States usually sees increased rainfall during El Niño episodes.

Drier conditions could develop in parts of South America, central Africa, Southeast Asia and Australia.

However, specialists stress that no two El Niño episodes are alike. For this reason, the specific impacts may vary from one case to another.

The heatwave that has characterized this summer is not considered to have been caused primarily by El Niño. Nevertheless, its influence could become more apparent during the autumn and early winter.

In northwestern Europe, including the United Kingdom, forecasts point to a higher likelihood of wet and stormy weather.

For Albania and the Balkans, the relationship is more complicated, and El Niño cannot be directly translated into an accurate forecast for temperatures or rainfall. Weather in the region will also depend on local conditions and other atmospheric factors.

Scientists’ main concern is the impact this phenomenon could have on the global average temperature.

When El Niño reaches its peak, large amounts of heat move from the ocean into the atmosphere. This could lead to a rise in the planet’s overall temperature, particularly during the calendar year following the phenomenon’s peak.

For precisely this reason, Nick Dunstone, a climate scientist at the Met Office, believes that 2027 is highly likely to take the title of the hottest year ever recorded from 2024.

Other research groups have forecast an even more intense El Niño, with anomalies in the relevant area of the Pacific potentially reaching as high as 4°C above average.

Climatologist Zeke Hausfather has said that, if this scenario were to materialize, it would not be impossible for the phenomenon to rank among the strongest El Niño episodes of the past 500 or even 1,000 years. However, there is not enough data for a reliable assessment over such long periods.

The potential consequences are not limited to the weather. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has warned that El Niño could affect tens of millions of people in the most exposed countries and increase food insecurity to critical levels.

Experts will continue to closely monitor Pacific temperatures and their impact on global atmospheric patterns. The ultimate strength of El Niño and its consequences will become clearer in the coming months.