A classified Russian document obtained by Ukrainian forces and seen by The New York Times outlines a scenario of attacks aimed at paralyzing essential services in Ukraine’s largest cities, including electricity, water supplies and heating.
Under the plan, the operation would rely on 70 ballistic missiles, 720 long-range drones and 150 guided bombs. The main targets would be Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa.
Të lidhura
None found
Kyiv has shared the document with its European partners. According to the calculations it contains, the attacks could destroy up to 90% of electricity-generation and heating-supply capacity in the three urban centers. This is an estimate by the authors of the plan and does not constitute a certain outcome.
The published analysis interprets the strategy as an attempt to damage critical infrastructure and make living conditions for civilians even more difficult at a time when Russia is struggling to secure military advances on the ground.
The operation of Kyiv’s water-supply system is closely linked to the electricity supply, as power is needed for pumping, water distribution and wastewater treatment. The system processes approximately 700 million liters of water every day and ranks among the capital’s largest electricity consumers.
The strikes on October 14 left many homes in Kyiv without electricity and water after missiles hit all three of the city’s combined heat and power plants. Before these attacks, the plants’ capacity had been reduced from around 1.3 gigawatts to 500 megawatts, increasing the capital’s dependence on external energy supplies.
Serhii Horkutsenko, deputy director of Kyivvodokanal, says that during the first months of the Russian invasion, the amount of water supplied to Kyiv fell by 50%. He estimates that the situation is now more serious, as the nature of Russia’s attacks has changed and Ukrainian infrastructure has been worn down by bombardments and constant repairs.
Wastewater systems face a particular risk. If the power supply is cut, wastewater cannot be pumped to treatment plants, which could cause pollution to spread through urban areas.
“If the sewage system stops functioning, we will have an epidemiological catastrophe within three days,” Horkutsenko warns.
The Bortnychi wastewater treatment plant is considered one of the most exposed sites, as it is the only facility of its kind serving the capital. Mykhailo Yatsuk, director of the Institute for Water Problems and Sanitation, says the facility has previously been hit by drones and missiles. According to him, damage to pumping stations could paralyze the entire system.
The risk is not limited to disruptions in water and electricity supplies. Low temperatures could further complicate the restoration of services: at around minus 10 degrees Celsius, pipes inside buildings could freeze, and supplies might not be restored immediately even after the electricity network is repaired.
Kyiv’s water-supply network currently has 103 generators. However, Mayor Vitali Klitschko warns that this equipment cannot guarantee an uninterrupted power supply.
Energy expert Viktoria Voytsitska has also expressed concern about the pace of preparations for reliable supplies. In her view, these measures may become feasible only in the spring of 2027.
As winter approaches, Ukrainian authorities must protect vital infrastructure and ensure basic services for millions of residents. Continued attacks on the energy network are increasing fears that damage to essential services could develop into a broad humanitarian crisis.
