Istogu: The price of oil in Kosovo could rise, domestic reserves are enough for only around five days

Fuel prices in Kosovo are not expected to fall quickly. On the contrary, a further increase in the coming months cannot be ruled out, according to Zekim Istogu, chairman of the Kosovo Oilmen’s Association.

In a statement to KP, Istogu said that geopolitical developments in the Middle East, the lack of strategic reserves and Kosovo’s complete dependence on imports are directly affecting fuel prices.

Since Kosovo obtains 100 percent of its oil and gasoline through imports, any change in international markets is immediately reflected in the domestic market.

Istogu stressed that the lack of large reserves inside the country makes it impossible for Kosovo to benefit from an immediate drop in international prices. According to him, tensions in the Middle East have caused oil prices to rise in recent days and months, while the situation in the region is showing no signs of improvement.

For this reason, he does not expect a major or rapid decline in fuel prices.

According to the chairman of the Oilmen’s Association, the crisis of recent weeks has escalated and does not appear likely to end soon. At the same time, reserves in Western countries, particularly in Asia and Europe, are at low levels, while demand continues to exceed production.

Even if the conflict in the Middle East stabilizes, Istogu predicts that prices will remain above January or February levels this year for some time. He said that within a year, the price could fall by 20-30 dollars, but is not expected to return to its previous level.

According to him, 2026 remains completely unpredictable because of developments in the Middle East and the agreements reached between the United States and Venezuela on exploiting Venezuela’s oil reserves. These agreements could contribute to lower prices, but only after the political situation in the Middle East stabilizes.

Istogu does not rule out an even larger price increase in the coming months. He expects a gradual decline to begin at the end of the year and continue until January, while the subsequent trend will depend on the final agreement.

Another important problem in the Kosovo market is the lack of state fuel reserves.

Istogu said that the reserves held by fuel companies are usually enough for around five days, while depending on the season they can reach up to 10 days. These products were purchased at earlier costs, and price changes at sales points are made gradually, in line with the average cost of the stock.

He explained that companies do not immediately lower prices when international markets record an exceptional decline, just as they do not immediately raise them in the event of extreme increases. According to him, prices adjust gradually both downward and upward.

The main problem, Istogu said, is that Kosovo has no strategic reserves and does not maintain state reserves. He estimated that the state’s reserves are effectively enough for around five days, while operators have sufficient quantities for approximately five days of operations.

As for consumption, Kosovo imports more than 900 million liters of oil and gasoline a year. This amounts to around 2 to 3 million liters a day, depending on the season, while consumption may double or triple during the summer.

Istogu said that oil and gasoline are standardized products throughout Europe. Oil is subject to the EN 590 standard, which determines quality through more than 10 parameters. According to him, Kosovo is a small market and has no possibility of importing oil outside this standard.

According to Istogu, customs statistics show that imports increased during the first months, while during the summer months, after the war began, stagnation was observed and in some months there was even a decline compared with the previous year. While 2025 and 2024 recorded solid growth, 2026 has not brought an increase in imports, which he links to lower consumption by citizens because of high prices.

According to the chairman of the Oilmen’s Association, a partial reduction in the excise tax by the government could immediately ease the burden on consumers.

The excise tax on oil is 36 cents, while for gasoline it is 38.5 cents. In addition, the price includes VAT, which is calculated as a percentage of the value of the goods, the excise tax and other costs. Istogu said that rising prices have led the state to collect an average of 7 to 8 cents more per liter compared with the period before the war began.

He estimated that a partial intervention in the excise tax would have a positive effect and reduce costs for citizens and final consumers.

Istogu welcomed the decision by the Ministry of Industry, Entrepreneurship and Trade to abolish the setting of a maximum retail price. However, he said that companies’ margins had not changed significantly and currently stood at around 10 cents per liter.

According to him, oil is being purchased for 1.70 or 1.73 euros and sold for 1.82 euros. This difference covers workers’ wages, maintenance, licensing, insurance, electricity and other operating costs. For this reason, the 10 to 12 cents provided for in the decision do not constitute net profit, but gross profit.

He added that, faced with high costs, companies are forced to reduce staff, operating expenses, maintenance and investment.

The chairman of the Oilmen’s Association denied that a lack of competition is the cause of high prices in Kosovo. He said that the market is highly competitive, as more than 50 companies hold import licenses, while 7 or 8 of them account for around 70 percent of imports.

According to Istogu, no company controls more than 15-16 percent of the market. For this reason, he estimates that competition lowers prices as much as possible and that there is currently no room for further reductions because of operating costs.

The increase in fuel prices has also affected state budget revenues. Istogu said that Kosovo’s citizens and consumers have paid around 217 million more outside the country since the beginning of the war, compared with last year.

During this period, around 33 million more was paid into the state budget because of the increase in prices. According to him, this amounts to around 7 to 8 cents more per liter compared with normal conditions.

The price of oil in Kosovo’s market reached as much as €1.83 per liter yesterday and today.

Until a few days ago, the Ministry of Industry, Entrepreneurship and Trade set the maximum price of fuel in Kosovo. On September 4, the ministry stopped setting maximum prices for fuel, restoring market prices at sales points.

The decision was taken after a lengthy period of price regulation introduced following the war in the Middle East, during which the Ministry of Industry, Entrepreneurship and Trade set maximum fuel prices in the country.

Acting Minister of Industry, Entrepreneurship and Trade Mimoza Kusari-Lila said that the legal basis allows a maximum price to be set for a period of up to 90 days, while the ministry had extended this period to 150 days.

According to her, economic operators did not necessarily make high profits during the period of price regulation. In some periods, they operated with minimal margins or even at a loss.

After the conflict that began on February 28 in the Middle East, the price of oil in Kosovo had reached as much as €1.91 per liter.

The war began on February 28 with American and Israeli attacks across Iran. Iran subsequently attacked Israel and US-allied states in the Persian Gulf, while the Strait of Hormuz, a major route for transporting oil and liquefied natural gas around the world, was effectively closed.