In the first months of the year, Albania had energy to sell. In the summer, it is paying €41.5 million to import it, at least so far. This reversal is not unusual.
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It has occurred repeatedly over the years, as domestic energy production remains heavily dependent on rainfall and water inflows. This time, it is happening as demand for energy rises due to high temperatures and the influx of tourists.
At the same time, storms and hail have damaged agricultural production, while vegetable prices rose by 8.5% in June, precisely at the peak of the domestic growing season.
The common denominator is hotter and more unstable weather. El Niño is part of this backdrop, but it is not the sole explanation for every heatwave, storm or price increase.
“El Niño affects the global climate, but its impact on the Mediterranean and Albania is not direct,” says Anira Gjoni, an expert in the Department of Meteorology at the Institute of Geosciences.
According to her, the country’s weather conditions are determined mainly by atmospheric systems that develop over the Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Europe, as well as by the regional circulation of air masses.
These systems can amplify, alter or weaken the signal associated with El Niño.
This makes it difficult to separate the phenomenon’s effects from the longer-term trend of climate change. Nevertheless, the economic impact of above-normal temperatures and increasingly erratic rainfall is becoming more measurable.
Record Consumption Changes the Energy Balance
During several weeks in June, temperatures in Albania were 3 to 6 degrees Celsius above the long-term average. The country was on the periphery of the heatwave that hit Western and Central Europe harder, but the anomalies were sufficient to increase pressure on the energy system.
“The rise in temperatures in our country was 3–6 degrees above the long-term average during the respective weeks of June,” Gjoni says.
She explains that the episodes of high temperatures were driven by the arrival of extremely warm subtropical air masses from North Africa. According to her, these conditions are mainly linked to the atmospheric configuration over the Mediterranean rather than to a direct impact from El Niño.
Daily energy consumption peaked at around 25,000 megawatt-hours in June, according to the Distribution System Operator. Compared with the same month last year, the increase was 13.9%.
In the first six months of 2026, consumption reached 4.4 million megawatt-hours, up from 4.1 million a year earlier, an increase of about 10%.
High temperatures and increased tourism activity are driving greater use of air conditioning and placing a heavier load on the grid. More than 1,000 employees have been placed on standby for the summer season, while 136 teams have been deployed in the field to respond to faults and prevent outages.
However, the main cost does not lie solely in grid maintenance. The Albanian Power Corporation has contracted 331,200 megawatt-hours of energy for the period from July 1 to September 30. The weighted average price was €125.47 per megawatt-hour, while the total value of the contract reached approximately €41.5 million.
Just a few months earlier, the situation was the opposite. High inflows into the Drin cascade enabled KESH to produce more energy than the domestic market required. From January to April, the company sold 456,945 megawatt-hours, generating approximately €33.15 million in revenue, including VAT.
A Double Blow to Agriculture
In agriculture, the risk is not linked only to drought. It also comes from rapid shifts between periods without rainfall and short, intense storms.
“Longer dry periods, interrupted by brief episodes of intense rainfall, are one of the most likely scenarios,” Ms. Gjoni says.
According to her, at higher temperatures, the atmosphere can hold more water vapor. This can lead to rainfall concentrated over short intervals, increasing the risk of flash floods and urban flooding.
For July and August, forecasts do not indicate a strong tendency for rainfall to be significantly above or below the climatic norm. Rainfall is expected to remain uneven across time and space, with dry intervals interrupted by localized episodes.
“Seasonal forecasts are more reliable for temperatures than for rainfall,” Gjoni says.
This combination is particularly costly for farmers. Hot periods increase irrigation needs and production costs.
Storms can damage crops within minutes, often just before harvest. In early July, hail struck fields of wheat, barley and onions on the Maliq plain.
Farmers reported significant losses and, in some cases, damage to more than half of their crops. Fruit trees, vineyards and other crops were damaged in areas of Elbasan.
In Zavalinë, reports from the field indicated severe damage to apple, plum and grape production.
Vineyards were affected in Kolonjë. The storms also caused losses in livestock farming. A lightning strike killed 150 head of livestock at a farm in Delvinë, while another strike in the Maliq area killed about 30 sheep and goats.
There is still no complete financial assessment of these events. However, for small farms, the loss of a seasonal crop or a herd of livestock can wipe out an entire year’s income.
The risk is higher because production is uninsured, leaving the cost with the farmer or shifting it to the public budget through compensation claims in cases where this is deemed justified.
Prices Rise at the Peak of Supply
The blows to production are occurring at a time when vegetable prices are already rising sharply. According to INSTAT, the “Vegetables, greens and legumes” category became 8.5% more expensive in June compared with a year earlier. The rate was almost three times the average food inflation rate of 3%.
The increase is unusual for a month that coincides with the peak production period for many domestic crops. Under normal conditions, increased seasonal supply should lower prices. This time, the opposite happened. Weather is not the only factor.
Exports, transportation costs, labor shortages, the structure of trade and intermediary margins also affect the final price. Nevertheless, high temperatures, the need for more irrigation and hail damage are placing additional pressure on production.
Heat Also Drives Up the Cost of Wildfires
In July, the National Civil Protection Agency reported operations to tackle 16 fire outbreaks across several of the country’s regions. In Shëngjin, on July 13, the flames required the deployment of seven fire engines, the Armed Forces and a military helicopter.
The agency also reported operations in other areas, including the village of Klos, showing that the risk was not limited to a single outbreak. Prolonged heat and dry vegetation cause fires to spread faster, make them more costly and make them more difficult to contain.
In tourist areas, the cost extends beyond the land burned. It affects businesses, the tourist season and public finances, as every operation requires personnel, vehicles and fuel and, in more serious cases, air support. This has been clearly evident in recent years, when large coastal areas have been engulfed by fires.
The initial cause may be human, but higher temperatures multiply the consequences. The longer the heat persists, the more wildfires shift from seasonal episodes to a recurring economic risk every year.
El Niño Is Not the Only Cause
“El Niño and climate change are two different processes occurring simultaneously,” Gjoni says. El Niño is a natural, cyclical and temporary phenomenon that affects climate variability from one year to the next. Climate change represents a long-term trend of rising temperatures, linked mainly to increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
“The high temperatures being recorded cannot be attributed solely to El Niño,” the expert says.
“It can temporarily intensify warming, but it is acting on a climate that is already getting warmer.”
Forecasts are also more reliable for temperatures than for rainfall. Temperatures are expected to remain above long-term averages in the coming months, while there is no clear indication as to whether rainfall will be above or below normal. It may remain uneven across time and territory.
This uncertainty carries its own cost. Energy companies must secure imports before knowing exactly how water inflows will change. Farmers must invest in irrigation, even though their crops may later be hit by hail. Municipalities must prepare simultaneously for water shortages, fires and flash floods.
El Niño may pass. The country’s economic exposure to heat and extreme weather will remain. Ultimately, the cost is not measured only in degrees Celsius. It appears in millions of euros spent on energy imports, crops lost in the fields and vegetables that cost more at the market.
What Is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural phenomenon that occurs when the waters of the tropical Pacific become warmer than usual. This warming alters winds and rainfall, affecting weather in many parts of the world.
In some countries, it can bring drought and higher temperatures, while in others it can cause heavy rainfall and flooding. In Albania, its impact is usually indirect and interacts with atmospheric conditions over the Mediterranean and Europe./Monitor
