The withdrawal of American troops from Iraq could give Iran new opportunities to expand its influence, experts say, warning that Tehran could benefit from any possible gap in the country’s security.
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Iran already plays an important role in Iraq’s political and economic life. Tehran backs powerful Shiite militias, some of which are part of state security structures but retain a considerable degree of autonomy.
The Islamic Republic of Iran on September 30 welcomed the end of the American military presence in Iraq after two decades, presenting this development as an important victory in efforts to remove American forces from the Middle East.
“Iran sees any US weakness as an opportunity to exert pressure and be more aggressive, so I expect the Iranians to try to exploit the new status quo by showing their strength in Iraq,” said Colin Clarke, executive director of the Soufan Center, a New York-based institute.
At the same time, experts also see a risk of the return of the extremist group Islamic State (IS). The organization has weakened significantly but remains active in Iraq.
Tehran may strengthen its positions.
Iran linked the American withdrawal from Iraq to the success of the so-called “axis of resistance,” the network of allies and militant groups backed by Tehran in the confrontation with Israel and the United States.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the elite branch of Iran’s armed forces, said on October 1 that the withdrawal represented a “magnificent achievement” for this axis. According to the Corps, it marked the end of “America’s heavy and shameful defeat” in Iraq.
US President Donald Trump described the withdrawal as a “victory” for Washington and Baghdad, saying that “it is time for America to go home!”
The decision to withdraw was made at a time when the US war with Iran continues, raising questions about its consequences. According to experts, this development could send the wrong signal to Tehran.
“Tehran will consider this as evidence that Washington is abandoning a commitment under pressure and as an opportunity to strengthen its own control in Iraq,” said Farzin Nadimi, a defense and Iran expert at the Washington Institute. He added that Iran will interpret the withdrawal as “proof that pressure works.”
In late February, when the United States and Israel launched an air campaign against Iran, Tehran-allied groups in Iraq joined the fighting and attacked American diplomatic and military facilities.
Meanwhile, Iran carried out several waves of missile and drone strikes in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdish region, in the north of the country, where Iranian Kurdish opposition groups have camps and offices.
Pro-Iranian militias seek more room.
“The Islamic Resistance in Iraq,” an umbrella organization of Iranian-backed Shiite armed groups, has presented the American withdrawal as a result of its attacks and as a victory for its own cause.
Some of these groups are also part of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella structure of mainly pro-Iranian militias that has been part of the Iraqi Army since 2016.
Linked to Iran’s axis of resistance, some of these organizations have refused to disarm and hand over their weapons to the state. For this reason, Baghdad was forced to push back the initial disarmament deadline, which was September 30, until June 2027.
Kataib Hezbollah, one of the most powerful pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and an organization designated as terrorist by the US, threatened the government in Baghdad before the departure of American forces.
“A government that does not work for the good of its people will be brought down by all possible means,” the statement said.
According to experts, organizations such as Kataib Hezbollah may interpret the US withdrawal as a signal that allows them to expand their activity and presence in areas where their militias are deployed.
One such area is Iraqi Kurdistan, on the border with northwestern Iran. An American air base was also located in this region, and it closed on September 30.
“With the withdrawal of US troops and air defenses, these groups have more room to pressure the Kurdistan Regional Government, to deepen their role in Iraqi security institutions, and to use Iraqi territory for attacks against US partners,” Nadimi said.
“The removal of American air and missile defense capabilities from Iraqi Kurdistan is seen as particularly concerning. The United States can still carry out strikes from outside Iraq, but the on-the-ground constraint no longer exists,” he added.
The Pentagon has said that the US will continue to provide Iraqi government forces with training and intelligence information.
The risk of the Islamic State’s return.
A large share of Iraqis have welcomed the departure of American troops. However, some doubt whether government forces are fully prepared to guarantee the security of this Middle Eastern country of about 48 million people.
The United States invaded Iraq in 2003 and toppled the regime of dictator Saddam Hussein. After that, the country was engulfed for years by war and sectarian conflict, whose consequences it is still trying to overcome.
After the 2011 withdrawal, American troops returned to Iraq in 2014 to help in the fight against IS extremists. At that time, the group had taken control of large territories in Iraq and neighboring Syria.
Iraqi security forces have built greater operational capacity, but they still lack air power and rely on foreign assistance. Experts say the American withdrawal could bring greater instability to Iraq, creating conditions that extremist groups may try to exploit.
“IS will see this as an opportunity, and it remains uncertain whether and to what extent Iraqi security forces will be able to keep the group under control,” Clarke said.
“It is difficult to look at the current situation without being reminded of the US withdrawal in 2011, which planted the seeds for the rise of IS,” he added./REL
