After heavy losses in the November 2026 elections, the Republican Party faces questions about its future. One is how much President Donald Trump will influence the 2028 presidential race.
Trump will not seek another term, but his low approval rating could weigh on the Republican candidate running for the White House. The White House and Republicans in Congress, however, do not appear to be paying enough attention to the risk.
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Precedents in American politics are not encouraging for the parties of presidents who leave office amid widespread dissatisfaction. Since the start of the 20th century, in every such case, the outgoing president’s party has lost the subsequent presidential election.
That happened after the presidencies of Woodrow Wilson in 1920, Harry Truman in 1952, Lyndon Johnson in 1968 and George W. Bush in 2008. Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 presidential race during a period of high public dissatisfaction; Democratic candidate Kamala Harris subsequently lost to Trump.
The November 2026 result is seen as a similar warning. Voter surveys conducted by SSRS for CNN and other media outlets showed that 86% of those who disapproved of Trump’s performance voted for Democrats in the nationwide House vote. In key Senate races, the figure was 85-89%.
Disapproval of the president extended across most of the country. Of the 45 states for which data was available, a majority of voters approved of Trump’s performance in only five: Arkansas, Idaho, South Dakota, West Virginia and Wyoming. All five have relatively small populations and strong Republican leanings.
In states where Democrats won governorships or Senate seats, voters who disapproved of Trump made up a significant share of the winning coalition. In Texas, 96% of the votes received by Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico came from people who disapproved of the president’s performance.
Still, a heavy midterm defeat does not necessarily determine the outcome of the presidential race for the party in power. Other presidents have regained support after poor results, whether by changing political direction or benefiting from an improving economy.
Harry Truman after the 1946 elections and Bill Clinton after those in 1994 are examples of such a recovery. Ronald Reagan, meanwhile, benefited from the economic recovery that followed Republican losses in 1982.
For Trump, the circumstances appear different. The political fallout from the war with Iran continues to dog him, while he has given no indication of a significant change of course. The appointment of Stephen Miller as White House chief of staff and the selection of Jim Jordan as the new leader of House Republicans have instead been seen as signs that the same approach will continue.
Republican strategist Steve Schmidt, a known Trump critic, believes the president and the party may double down on precisely the policies and approach that have driven some voters away. In his view, Republicans risk responding to their losses with even more rigid positions rather than learning from them.
The 2008 presidential race illustrates the difficulty an unpopular president can create for a successor. Republican John McCain tried to distance himself from George W. Bush, who ended his presidency with a 71% disapproval rating amid dissatisfaction over the war in Iraq and the financial crisis.
Although he had clashed politically with Bush, McCain won only 30% of the vote among those who disapproved of the outgoing president. Barack Obama won by a substantial margin and also carried nine states that had voted for Bush in 2004.
A president with high approval does not guarantee victory for the candidate who follows him. But history shows that a president with low approval can become a heavy burden for his party.
For Republicans, the test in 2028 may be distancing themselves from Trump’s political legacy. If dissatisfaction with him remains high, their White House candidate will face both the Democratic rival and voters’ discontent with the current administration.
