A new study reveals that extreme temperatures may pose a far greater threat to older people than previously estimated. Even if the global temperature rises by only 1.5 degrees Celsius compared with pre-industrial levels, people over the age of 60 may be exposed to dangerous heat stress.
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The findings, published in The Lancet Public Health, show that this age group is particularly vulnerable because older people’s bodies have greater difficulty coping with high temperatures.
As people age, they sweat less, the strain on the heart increases, and blood vessels lose some of their ability to dilate efficiently. As a result, the body has more difficulty cooling itself during periods of extreme heat.
According to the researchers, previous calculations of dangerous temperature thresholds have not adequately taken differences between age groups into account.
In earlier research, thresholds were determined mainly on the basis of younger people and then applied to older people as well. Such an approach may have underestimated the actual risk to this group, including cardiovascular problems.
Experts estimate that dangerous heat stress may occur in younger adults when warming reaches around 4°C. For older people, however, the same threat may emerge with an increase of just 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
With every additional degree of global warming, the number of people exposed for prolonged periods to uncompensable heat stress is also expected to rise significantly.
This condition occurs when the body is no longer able to lower its temperature effectively. In such circumstances, the risks of dehydration, collapse, and the worsening of pre-existing illnesses increase.
Older people with heart disease, kidney disease, or other chronic conditions are most at risk. The threat is expected to intensify as two trends develop in parallel: rising global temperatures and growth in the population over the age of 60.
The study predicts that by 2050, the number of people in this age group will reach approximately 2.1 billion.
The consequences are expected to hit low- and middle-income countries hardest, experts warn, because people there have fewer means of protecting themselves from extreme temperatures. If global warming continues to accelerate, the study also notes that some tropical and subtropical regions may become increasingly difficult to inhabit, especially for older people.
The experts’ conclusion is clear: heatwaves should not be viewed simply as weather events, but as a serious health threat whose consequences primarily affect older people.
