Scientists are warning of serious risks to public health worldwide from an unusually large-scale climate phenomenon known as “Super El Niño.” They say extreme temperatures could claim hundreds of thousands of lives by February 2027.
A Climate Impact Lab report estimates that extreme heat could cause up to 451,000 additional deaths from June 2026 to February 2027. These would be deaths above the usual number associated with high temperatures.
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Epidemiologists have described the potential impact of El Niño as a health crisis on a pandemic scale, adding to concerns. Researchers have called on the World Health Organization to treat the phenomenon as an international public health emergency.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon linked to the unusual warming of waters in the Pacific Ocean, affecting weather patterns across the planet. This time, it is expected to be particularly intense, while climate change could further worsen its effects.
Forecasts indicate there could be 44% more days with extreme temperatures than in normal years. Alongside the heat, droughts, floods, massive wildfires and disruptions to food supplies could also occur.
The most severe effects are expected to be felt in countries of the Global South. Nigeria is among the most at risk, with around 31,400 additional deaths projected because of high temperatures. Indonesia, Sudan, India and Brazil also face significant risks.
The World Meteorological Organization has warned that El Niño will intensify in the coming months and could last until February 2027. Researchers stress that the figure of 451,000 deaths is a scientific projection, not a certain prediction. They are calling for preventive measures, including heatwave warning systems, cooling centers and stronger health services.
