El Niño and record temperatures could bring up to 451,000 additional deaths from heat

A study by the “Climate Impact Lab” at the University of Chicago raises the alarm that extreme heat and the El Niño phenomenon could lead to up to 451,000 additional deaths worldwide, compared with an ordinary year.

According to the report, from June 2026 until the end of February 2027, average land surface temperatures could be about 1.2°C higher, which would significantly increase the number of days with extreme temperatures.

Researchers estimate that such a situation would mean about 44% more days with extreme heat than in a normal year. According to them, these temperature levels are similar to conditions that climate change could make more common about twenty years later.

Michael Greenstone, co-founder of “Climate Impact Lab” and one of the study’s authors, warns that the impact of high temperatures could continue even after El Niño ends, as forecast, in February. The consequences of the phenomenon could be felt until next summer.

The greatest risk belongs to poorer countries, which already face food insecurity and high energy costs. They are expected to bear the heaviest burden of this heat wave.

Africa, especially the Sahel region, is expected to be among the hardest-hit areas. The study estimates around 66,800 additional deaths linked to high temperatures in this region.

Considerable risk also appears in parts of South and Southeast Asia and Latin America.

According to the report’s calculations, around 19,400 additional deaths are projected in the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia; around 19,300 in Indonesia; around 15,800 in India; and around 13,300 in Brazil.

The study links the increased risk of deaths to exposure to extreme temperatures, while emphasizing that El Niño’s impacts could amplify the consequences of an already warming climate.

Experts underline that these figures are projections and not a certain number of victims. They depend on the intensity and duration of El Niño, on the temperatures that will be recorded in the coming months, and on countries’ ability to adapt to heat waves.