Scientists warn: El Niño could bring the worst climate crisis in 1,000 years

El Niño could be one of the most powerful episodes recorded in at least 1,000 years, according to forecasts warning of severe consequences worldwide.

As the climate crisis deepens, the phenomenon increases the risk of droughts, floods, wildfires and food shortages in many regions.

Concerns have been raised during the UN climate talks, COP31, being held in Turkey. Representatives of international organizations and activists have called for immediate action, particularly for the poorest countries and those most vulnerable to climate change.

El Niño is a natural phenomenon that occurs every few years when waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. Its effects can spread across the globe, significantly altering temperature and rainfall patterns.

In some countries, the consequences are already visible. Indonesia has faced major wildfires and crop damage, while the US has recorded flooding in coastal areas. Drought is worsening in Sudan; Ecuador and Somalia, meanwhile, have been hit by significant flooding.

Celeste Saulo, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization, warned that climate change is making extreme events more dangerous. She said the weather is becoming more intense and El Niño will multiply the risks.

Among the countries expected to be badly affected are the Marshall Islands in the Pacific Ocean. Drought has caused a water supply crisis there, and the country has declared a state of emergency. The Marshall Islands rely primarily on rainfall for drinking water.

The Marshall Islands’ climate envoy, Kathy Jetn̄il-Kijiner, said the situation is becoming increasingly difficult. Alongside drought, the country faces rising sea levels, which threaten homes and drinking water sources.

Another problem is insufficient funding for developing countries. Although wealthy countries agreed last year to triple funding for climate change adaptation, the money secured remains far below what is needed.

Estimates indicate that around $305 billion a year will be needed by 2035 to help poorer countries cope with floods, heatwaves, wildfires and other consequences of the climate crisis. Jetn̄il-Kijiner called for more support from wealthy countries, stressing that those that have contributed least to climate change face costs they cannot afford.

Attention has also turned to East Africa, where drought could cause mass displacement. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) warns that up to 3 million people could be forced to leave their homes in Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan and Uganda.

In Kenya, maize production has fallen by 40%. This is expected to worsen food security and reduce the country’s ability to cope with an influx of refugees.

Bill Hare, a climate scientist and CEO of Climate Analytics, warned that El Niño could make global warming feel as though it is accelerating, increasing the risk of humanitarian crises linked to food and water.

Forecasts place the phenomenon’s peak in December, while its effects are expected to continue throughout next year. The main consequences could include extreme temperatures, too little or too much rainfall, and crop damage. Heat stress could also cause coral bleaching in the oceans.

Environmental organizations are calling on countries to go beyond diplomatic promises and provide concrete assistance to affected communities. Mohamed Adow, founder of Power Shift Africa, stressed that a promise cannot protect crops: people need resources on the ground.

According to Adow, countries experiencing the effects of the climate crisis firsthand need urgent help and cannot wait for further international commitments.