DW: A Powerful “El Niño” Could Hit the Planet by the End of the Year, Bringing Global Economic Shocks, Extreme Weather and Rising Food Prices

A powerful “El Niño” could hit the planet by the end of the year, bringing global economic shocks, extreme weather and rising food prices.

A “super” El Niño could increase the cost of living worldwide. Experts warn that one of the strongest El Niño events recorded in the past 140 years could emerge by the end of the year.

This natural phenomenon not only affects weather conditions but could also have major consequences for the global economy and the cost of living.

Trillions of Dollars in Economic Damage

According to climate expert Christopher Callahan, previous El Niño events have caused extraordinary economic losses. “The 1982-1983 El Niño caused more than $4 trillion in global economic losses, which were felt for up to five years after the event. Meanwhile, the 1997-1998 event resulted in around $5.7 trillion in economic losses,” he told DW.

What Is El Niño?

El Niño is a climate phenomenon that usually occurs every 2 to 4 years. It is associated with higher water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and causes severe droughts, intense rainfall, flooding and extreme heat waves.

Its effects are felt in many regions around the world, damaging infrastructure, agricultural production and supply chains.

Risks to Food and Agriculture

Climate changes linked to El Niño could directly affect food production. India is facing extreme temperatures and is at risk of drought due to changes in wind cycles. Meanwhile, Vietnam has warned of severe heat waves, an increase in rainfall of up to 50% and massive flooding. These developments could reduce agricultural production and lead to higher food prices on international markets.

Problems for Waterways and Global Trade

El Niño could also affect strategic waterways. In Panama, low water levels limited the number of ships that could pass through the Panama Canal. As a result, global trade slowed and millions of dollars in losses were incurred.

This shows that the phenomenon’s impact is not limited to the weather but directly affects the global economy and supply chains.

Chocolate Could Become More Expensive

The effects of El Niño are also being felt in the global cocoa market. Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, has slowed sales and raised prices amid fears that drought could damage future harvests.

The result could be tangible for consumers: higher chocolate prices worldwide.

A Blow to the Fishing Industry as Well

In Peru, the effects of El Niño are particularly evident in the fishing sector.

“One concrete way Peru is affected is through the shutdown of fishing activity that depends on nutrient-rich waters rising from the depths of the Pacific Ocean under normal conditions,” Callahan explains.

This has significant economic consequences for the region and for communities that depend on fishing.

The Effects Could Last for Years

According to experts, the economic effects of El Niño do not always appear immediately.

Economies may recover temporarily by rebuilding infrastructure and restoring agricultural production. However, studies show that many countries face economic slowdowns and a lack of recovery for 5 to 10 years after extreme climate events.

How Are Governments Preparing?

Many countries have begun taking precautionary measures to reduce the impact. Panama has prepared water-rationing plans aimed at preventing another blockage of the Panama Canal. Bangladesh has invested in scientific research and early-warning systems for natural disasters. According to Paul Roundy, a professor at the University at Albany in the United States, these measures have produced tangible results. “The number of people who lose their lives in storms has fallen significantly. From hundreds of thousands of victims in the past, today many cases involve only dozens,” he noted.

El Niño remains one of the world’s most powerful climate phenomena. In addition to affecting the weather, it could raise food prices, disrupt international trade, damage agriculture and slow economic growth for many years. For this reason, experts stress that preparedness and investment in warning systems are essential to mitigating its effects./DW