Reuters analysis: How the absence of Iran’s Mojtaba Khamenei is becoming a burden for the Islamic Republic

Reuters has published an analysis of Mojtaba Khamenei’s absence, describing it as a deepening mystery that is turning into a liability for the stability of the Islamic Republic.

According to the agency’s reporting, since his appointment as Supreme Leader on March 8, one week after the attack in which his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed, Mojtaba has never appeared in public, has given no interviews, and no new audio recording or image of him has been released.

Senior sources told Reuters that he suffered facial disfigurement and other injuries in the February strike, which has kept him out of public view, despite the fact that he continues to make strategic decisions.

The analysis stresses that this “disappearance” is fueling concern among Iranian citizens and calling his authority into question at a time when the country is facing renewed hostilities with the United States and internal unrest.

Experts argue that while the Revolutionary Guard currently maintains control of the country, the absence of a leader who appears physically and projects strength is unsustainable in the long term for a theocratic state.

Full article:

“The whereabouts of Mojtaba Khamenei have been a mystery to Iranians and the rest of the world ever since his appointment as supreme leader a week after the attack that killed his father in late February.

His absence from the main funeral ceremonies for former leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was so complete that there was not even a written message, leaving people to speculate about his plans for Iran at a turbulent moment in the Islamic Republic’s 47-year history.

Installed with the backing of the powerful Revolutionary Guard, he suffered facial disfigurement and other injuries in the attack, senior sources say. They say he has been making decisions, but has not yet felt well enough to appear in public.

Now, after hostilities with the United States flared up again this week, his role and health are becoming a critical — and growing — concern. “I understand that, from a security standpoint, he should not appear in public. But the country is going through a very difficult time,” said Taghi, a 47-year-old shop owner in Isfahan, who asked not to give his surname. “There is a need for the Supreme Leader to be seen. Even if he has been wounded, people need to see that there is a leader and that he is running the country.”

OTHER RELATIVES REPRESENT THE RULING FAMILY

The choreography of Thursday’s funeral, with prayers for the late Khamenei led over his coffin by his three other sons at Iran’s holiest shrine, underscored the central place of family ties in the leadership of the Islamic Republic.

Mojtaba Khamenei’s three brothers are not seen as major political players in Iran — nor are they likely to become so — although all have become senior clerics. But Ali Khomeini, grandson of the founder of Iran’s 1979 revolution, will speak on Mojtaba’s behalf at a mourning ceremony on Friday, a mark of respect for the way such family ties are used to emphasize continuity in the clerical system.

There had been speculation that Mojtaba Khamenei would finally appear — if not in person, then through a recorded message or even new photographs — when his father was finally buried at the golden-domed shrine.

Senior sources in Iran have attributed the absence of any new image or voice recording since his appointment on March 8 by a clerical assembly to health and security considerations.

The security risks are considerable given the killing of his father in the first U.S. and Israeli strikes of an undeclared war launched amid diplomatic efforts to resolve the countries’ disputes with Iran.

And as a political, strategic, religious and revolutionary figure holding ultimate authority in Iran, he may need to appear more physically capable than his recovery still allows. The last official word on his condition came from President Masoud Pezeshkian, who said in May that he had met with the leader and that his condition was improving. While the Revolutionary Guard appears to have the country under control for the moment, it is unclear how long the leader of a theocratic state can remain out of sight.

“How can you have a charismatic successor when the successor is not there? It will be a problem for them even if they ignore it for the moment. It is not sustainable in the long term,” said Ali Ansari, professor of modern history at the University of St Andrews in Scotland.

THE NEW LEADER BUILT CLOSE TIES WITH THE GUARDS

His absence is starting to irritate Iranians, with more than 20 of those Reuters has contacted in recent weeks expressing concern about it in conversations about Iranian politics.

“The absence of the supreme leader, now that the war is over, will lead to increased insecurity and disorder in the country, especially after the funeral of the late leader,” said Mohammadreza, a 51-year-old teacher in Tehran.

The role of the supreme leader is different from that of most other heads of state, with Iran’s official ideology recognizing the officeholder as the representative on earth of the 12th imam of Shiite Islam, who disappeared in the ninth century.

What Mojtaba Khamenei will do with that remains unclear. The first leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, was the charismatic father of the revolution and Iran’s most revered religious scholar, a man whose imposing bearing and stern demeanor inspired unquestioned obedience.

His successor, Ali Khamenei, had been president when he was appointed leader, but was never seen as a particularly elevated religious figure and initially lacked Khomeini’s authority.

However, during his 37 years as leader, he outmaneuvered rivals and, with the close help of the Revolutionary Guard, imposed his absolute control over almost every aspect of the country’s political life.

Mojtaba Khamenei also lacks religious credentials and, unlike his father, was not a powerful political figure in his own right. Instead, he ran his father’s vast office and its network of contacts across the country and built close ties with the Guard. His views, authority and abilities remain a blank slate, although it seems likely that the Guard will remain central to the way he rules.

With Iran still mired in conflict despite the temporary ceasefire, with its economy still choked by sanctions, and with the prospect of further mass unrest like that violently suppressed in January, the country’s leader remains an unknown quantity,” Reuters writes.