Politico: The Vannacci challenge and the 7% that could decide the elections, the reasons why Meloni is hardening her stance on immigration

As the next elections in Italy approach, Giorgia Meloni is facing a new competitor on the political right. Former general and MEP Roberto Vannacci is gaining ground with his newly founded party “National Future”.

The rise of this force appears to be putting pressure on the Italian prime minister, steering her toward a tougher position, especially on immigration and security.

Politico assesses that Meloni is gradually fading the moderate profile she built over her years in government and is returning to a harsher language against illegal immigration.

The latest clash between Rome and Madrid over immigration is seen as one of the most visible signs of this shift.

Following the massive arrival of migrants from Morocco into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, Meloni’s government was the first within the European Union to react with strong criticism of the Spanish authorities.

France and several other European states tightened border controls, but Italy took an additional step, announcing the temporary suspension of the Schengen agreement with Spain.

At Italian airports, special checks began for passengers travelling from Spain. Rome announced that these measures would not be lifted at least until 15 August, while Madrid warned it would impose similar controls on travellers arriving from Italy.

“We will not give up a single millimetre on the issue of illegal immigration,” Meloni wrote on X.

The prime minister stressed that protecting borders, cracking down on human traffickers and carrying out effective repatriations will continue to be among her government’s priorities.

According to Politico’s analysis, the tensions with Spain are also linked to the internal dynamics of Italian politics.

Elections could be held as early as next spring and, in the meantime, Vannacci’s “National Future” is advancing in the polls. Politico’s poll shows that the new party has already overtaken the League, one of the coalition partners in Meloni’s government, and is closing in on Forza Italia.

This shift carries particular weight for Meloni. She began her political career at a young age, within Italy’s neo-fascist movement, before gradually building a more institutional and internationally acceptable image over time.

According to political scientist Marco Tarchi, the main source of concern is the competition emerging on the right. He notes that the fundamental themes have not changed and remain security, immigration and identity, but the biggest shift is seen in the tone.

Irregular immigration already occupied an important place in the campaign that brought Meloni to power in 2022. Among her pledges was the establishment of a naval blockade off the Italian coast.

Although this initiative was not carried out, the Italian executive went on to set up centres in Albania, where migrants would be housed while their asylum applications were being processed.

At the same time, Vannacci is aiming to occupy an even more right-wing position. Security and immigration have been placed at the heart of his campaign, while he is promoting a concept called “re-migration”. This plan, still unclear, aims to encourage migrants to return to their countries of origin.

The events in Ceuta gave Meloni the opportunity to forcefully put immigration back at the centre of the political debate. During the crisis, tens of thousands of people crossed from Morocco into the Spanish enclave, while nearly 100 of them lost their lives.

Giorgio Gori told Politico that the prime minister’s reaction was the product of “purely domestic political calculations”. In his view, Meloni is seeking to keep her traditional electorate close, by proving that she continues to represent the hard-line right-wing positions on immigration.

Giovanni Orsina, who heads the political science department at Luiss Guido Carli University in Rome, believes Meloni’s immediate objective is to stop the outflow of votes from “Brothers of Italy”.

This need becomes even more important because of the possibility of a future agreement with Vannacci, either before or after the elections.

Lorenzo Preliasco, a representative of the polling company YouTrend, says that “National Future” has registered a significant strengthening, especially over the last two months, and now enjoys support of over 7%.

This percentage could determine the fate of the entire right-wing coalition. “Without Vannacci, the centre-right could lose the next elections,” Preliasco stated, highlighting the weight of these seven points.

Nevertheless, the prime minister’s inner circle does not accept that Vannacci’s pressure is pushing Meloni further to the right.

Nicola Procaccini, her ally and co-chair of the European Conservatives and Reformists group in the European Parliament, insists that Meloni has not changed her position and continues to stand where she has always stood.

While on some topics the differences appear mainly in rhetoric, Ukraine represents the point where the divide between Meloni and Vannacci runs much deeper.

Both the League and Vannacci support a softer approach towards Moscow. They oppose sending military aid to Kyiv and disagree with increased defence spending.

Meloni, on the other hand, has positioned Italy as a strong supporter of Ukraine. Politico notes, however, that her dependence on the League in the governing coalition has limited the scale of Italy’s contribution.

Over four years, Italy has allocated around €3 billion, an amount equivalent to roughly one euro per month for every Italian citizen. Rome also did not join NATO’s PURL programme to supply Ukraine with weapons. This mechanism was set up after Donald Trump ended new commitments for US military aid to Kyiv.

Marco Tarchi considers Ukraine the main difference between Meloni and Vannacci. On other issues, he says, the distance between them is deepening mainly at the level of rhetoric and for tactical political motives.

Meloni’s team does not rule out the possibility of a future alliance with the former general, but links such cooperation to his stances on the main foreign policy themes.

Procaccini said that an agreement could not be achieved if Vannacci were to line Italy up alongside Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. If he chooses the West and Western liberal democracies, then cooperation could become possible.

The race within the Italian right is intensifying as the elections draw nearer. Meloni must prevent the departure of her traditional supporters, while Vannacci aims to expand the political space to the right of the prime minister.