Meloni wins first pre-election showdown as coalition candidate defeats far-right rival in Calabria

Italy’s governing coalition triumphed yesterday in the by-election held in the southern region of Calabria. The result represents the first major test for Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni against a new far-right force, ahead of next year’s general election.

National Future, led by former army general Roberto Vannacci, has reached around 9% in opinion polls since it was founded in February this year. This has put it ahead of Meloni’s smaller coalition partners and turned it into a challenge for the right in the conservative electoral stronghold of Reggio Calabria.

However, the candidate backed by the governing coalition received around 53% of the vote, while Vannacci’s candidate secured approximately 10%, according to partial counting results.

Before the vote, analysts expected Vannacci to perform better in the area, which traditionally leans to the right. They said a strong result for him could split the right-wing vote and pave the way for a victory by the centre-left.

“We won by a large margin,” declared Roberto Occhiuto, Calabria’s incumbent governor and deputy leader of the coalition party Forza Italia.

Vannacci has strengthened his support nationwide through anti-immigration positions and calls to defend what he considers traditional Italian values.

His political rise has alarmed Meloni and could affect her efforts to secure another term, as he could attract some of the voters who supported the coalition in 2022.

Opinion polls suggest Meloni could remain in power if she reached an agreement with Vannacci. Such cooperation, however, would create tensions within the governing coalition.

Matilde Siracusano, a parliamentary undersecretary, Forza Italia legislator and Occhiuto’s ally, warned that an electoral pact with National Future would be “a serious problem.”

Siracusano also said she would sue Vannacci after he posted on social media an image generated by artificial intelligence showing her wearing a revealing top.

The centre-left candidate received 35% of the vote in the by-election, recording a better result than in 2022. Turnout, however, was just 22%, compared with 49.4% four years ago.