Poland and Baltic States Step Up Protection of Strategic Infrastructure Amid Fears of a Staged Russian Attack

As tensions with Moscow remain high, Poland and the Baltic states have tightened security around vital facilities such as power plants, dams and gas pipeline networks. The move comes amid concerns that Russia could orchestrate a staged provocation and blame Ukraine.

NATO’s northern neighbors are preparing for possible sabotage scenarios by strengthening protective measures around critical infrastructure, according to a Reuters report. Lithuania has raised concerns that Moscow may be considering an attack using Ukrainian-made drones to stage an incident, while Poland, Latvia and Estonia have also warned of the risk of acts of sabotage designed to test NATO’s response.

Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas confirmed that the country is increasing security around sensitive infrastructure and coordinating its actions with intelligence services. “We are not naive. We look at the data, read between the lines and are doing our job,” he told Reuters.

On the ground, Lithuania has deployed military forces to assist police in protecting the liquefied natural gas terminal in Klaipeda, petroleum product storage facilities, a major energy corridor connecting the country to Poland, and the Kruonis pumped-storage hydroelectric plant. Latvia has also stepped up surveillance at critical sites, including the dam on the Daugava River near Riga and the underground gas storage facility in Incukalns.

Intelligence sources cited by Reuters suggest that Russian security agencies may be planning a “false flag” operation against targets in Russia, the Baltic states or Poland, using unmanned aerial vehicles that could be traced back to Kyiv. Officials say the greatest risk lies not only in the potential physical damage, but also in the political chaos that would erupt within NATO as allies debated the appropriate response.

A regional official said information from allied intelligence services had caused deep concern across the region, although there was no evidence of an imminent attack. The Kremlin has dismissed the warnings as “scare stories” intended to justify militarization against Russia and has stressed that the West is making accusations without concrete evidence.

In Warsaw, state-owned oil and gas giant Orlen is examining alternative supply routes for any scenario involving damage to energy infrastructure. Around 80% of Poland’s gas imports arrive through the liquefied natural gas terminal in Świnoujście and an undersea pipeline from Norway. At the same time, Poland’s power grid operator has stepped up security measures at the interconnection with Ukraine, which helps stabilize a system damaged by the war.

The state-owned company responsible for the country’s first nuclear power plant reported the emergence of forged documents that were allegedly intended to sow confusion among the parties involved. According to the company, the documents are believed to have originated in eastern Poland and are being investigated by special services and law enforcement agencies.

Meanwhile, mysterious drone flights in several European countries have heightened fears of hybrid threats. In Germany, a drone fitted with explosives was recently found near Leipzig/Halle Airport, although it remains unclear who was behind the incident. Experts warn that Russia is seeking to create uncertainty across the continent and test the speed of NATO’s response.