More than 50,000 premature deaths in Europe: studies reveal the toll of heat in summer 2026

Extreme temperatures in the summer of 2026 are linked to an estimated 50,391 premature deaths across 854 European cities. This estimate makes it the summer with the highest heat-related death toll within the period examined.

Two studies published in the scientific journal Nature Health attribute around two-thirds of this toll, or 32,619 deaths, to human-induced climate change.

To assess the relationship between temperatures and mortality, scientists from Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine examined data from 30 European countries. The analysis covered June through August 2026.

The researchers’ calculations also indicate a death toll around 71% higher when comparing summers.

Italy had the highest estimated death toll, with 13,303 deaths. It was followed by France with 7,268, Spain with 6,824 and Germany with 6,340, while the United Kingdom recorded an estimated 4,354 premature deaths linked to heat.

In Western Europe, average summer temperatures exceeded the 1991–2020 average by around 2.9 degrees Celsius. In some locations and on certain days, temperatures reached up to 12 degrees Celsius above historical levels.

A particularly intense heatwave, lasting from June 17 to July 1, coincided with almost a third of the estimated deaths. During those days, the cities analysed recorded average temperatures 5.3 degrees Celsius above the seasonal norm.

People over 85 were the hardest hit, with an estimated 22,502 deaths, representing 45% of the total. But the impact was not limited to older people: the researchers’ estimates show that extreme temperatures also claimed the lives of thousands of people under 65.

Heat can worsen heart, vascular and respiratory diseases, cause heatstroke and make it harder for the body to recover overnight. Those who live alone, have low incomes or cannot stay in cool environments are most at risk.