Washington and Riyadh Near Finalizing a Nuclear Deal / Trump Administration Allows Uranium Enrichment, Alarm Over a New Regional Race

Washington and Riyadh are expected to announce soon an unprecedented nuclear cooperation pact, with a timeframe of up to 30 years, that will pave the way for American corporations to get involved in building the Saudi atomic sector.

Following the conclusion of a joint analysis between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, the kingdom may also build a uranium enrichment plant on its soil. Although the program is presented as a civilian energy initiative, analysts warn that this step puts Riyadh in the so-called “nuclear threshold state,” which would allow it, with a political decision, to leap toward a military arsenal within a relatively short period.

For many decades, American policy has insisted that its allies in the Middle East forgo indigenous uranium enrichment and reprocessing of nuclear fuel. The most illustrative case remains the 2009 agreement with the United Arab Emirates, where Abu Dhabi agreed not to develop the enrichment cycle and approved deep inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Unlike that precedent, the accord with the kingdom does not oblige it to forgo enrichment nor to sign the IAEA’s Additional Protocol, leaving serious questions open about the degree of international oversight.

According to the Donald Trump administration, the deal will be accompanied by bilateral verification and control measures which, it says, meet American non-proliferation standards. However, the specifics of these mechanisms have not yet been made public.

The pact is also considered at odds with the U.S. approach toward Iran. For years, Washington has pressed Tehran arguing that uranium enrichment could turn into a platform for atomic bomb production. Now, granting a similar capacity to Saudi Arabia is expected to be exploited by Iran as evidence of double-standard policies.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman himself has previously declared that if Iran acquires nuclear weapons, Riyadh will follow the same path “as quickly as possible.”

The agreement has also raised strong concerns in Israel, which for decades has maintained military and nuclear superiority in the region. Observers warn that the creation of an enrichment infrastructure in Saudi Arabia could also spur other countries, such as Turkey and Egypt, to seek comparable capabilities.

On the other hand, the deal has considerable economic weight for the United States. Companies like Westinghouse are expected to win multi-billion-dollar contracts for building Saudi reactors and nuclear infrastructure, while Washington seeks to prevent Riyadh from turning to Beijing or Moscow for developing its program.

Unlike the Joe Biden administration, which had conditioned nuclear cooperation on the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, Donald Trump has chosen to view the two issues independently, pushing the accord forward without requiring immediate recognition of the Jewish state by Riyadh.

The agreement, known as the “123 Agreement” under the U.S. Atomic Energy Act, will be sent to Congress for review. Although a fierce political debate is expected, the balance of parliamentary forces makes it difficult to block.

Specialists assess that this pact does not turn Saudi Arabia into a nuclear power overnight, but it provides it with access to the most sensitive technological links of the nuclear cycle, reshaping strategic balances in the Middle East and adding to fears of a new nuclear arms race in the region.