Vučić’s defeat does not guarantee change in Serbia, Bosch says nationalism could prevail and affect Kosovo

The parliamentary elections held on October 25 in Serbia brought a significant change to the country’s political landscape. The list backed by the student movement won the election, ending the long-standing lead of Aleksandar Vučić’s camp, which conceded defeat. The result has sparked debate about Serbia’s new political direction.

However, a change in the political majority does not automatically mean that Belgrade will change its positions, particularly on Kosovo. Normalization of relations, nationalism and foreign policy orientation are expected to remain among the new government’s most difficult challenges.

Robert Bosch, the former Dutch ambassador to Kosovo, commented on the developments for “Bota sot.” He said he welcomed Vučić’s defeat, but stressed that it is not yet clear what course the new government will take or which forces will have the greatest influence within it.

According to Bosch, the election result is a significant development, but it is not yet proof that Serbia will move toward a more liberal and cooperative policy, especially in its foreign relations.

“I am not a true expert on Serbia, but I have followed the situation closely. I was glad to see Vučić lose, but now we have to see what the new government will do and what it can do, given that Ana Brnabić remains at the helm,” Bosch said.

He stressed that expectations should not be too high, in part because of the student list’s foreign policy platform, which he considers highly nationalist. For that reason, he said, the composition of the cabinet and the individuals who take charge of key institutions will be decisive.

“The student list’s platform on foreign affairs did not offer much hope either; it was still too nationalist,” the former Dutch ambassador said.

Bosch explained that Serbia’s political future will be shaped primarily by who is chosen as prime minister, the new ministers, and the influence liberal figures will have compared with representatives of traditional Serbian nationalism.

“So it will depend mainly on the prime minister and the ministers: will liberals or nationalists dominate? I am afraid it will be the latter,” Bosch said.

The student list’s victory has also added uncertainty about the future of relations between Kosovo and Serbia. A change of power in Belgrade could create room for a different approach, but that will depend on the new cabinet’s priorities and its willingness to reconsider previous policies.

For Kosovo, the key question is whether the new government will take concrete steps toward normalizing relations, or whether opposition to Kosovo’s statehood and nationalist positions will continue to guide Serbian policy.

As Bosch warns, Vučić’s defeat alone is not enough to expect a profound political shift. The composition of the new government, its platform and its foreign policy decisions will show which direction Serbia will take.

It remains to be seen, therefore, whether the student movement’s victory will bring a more pragmatic policy toward Kosovo, or whether nationalism will continue to shape relations between the two countries.