Vance talks about tariffs as funding for the $5,000 pledge, but the numbers don’t add up

US Vice President JD Vance stated that revenue generated from tariffs could serve as a funding source for Donald Trump’s promise to give every adult American a $5,000 payment.

During an interview with Fox News, Vance emphasized that American citizens could benefit from what he described as the “extraordinary wealth” generated by the policies of the Trump-led administration.

However, data shows a different picture. According to NBC News reporter Garett Haake, the amount from tariffs is far from what is needed to fulfill this pledge, the cost of which is estimated at about $1.35 trillion.

An analysis from the Tax Policy Center in the US suggests that tariffs could generate approximately $1.7 trillion over a ten-year period, from 2026 to 2036. But this amount does not accumulate in a short period.

According to this forecast, only about $177 billion would be collected during the first fiscal year, 2026. Then, these revenues are expected to decrease, as US consumers and businesses may reduce the volume of imports from countries and goods hit by tariffs.

This situation shows that, although tariffs can contribute large sums to the federal budget, they do not create an immediate and sufficient cash flow to cover the $5,000 promise for every American.