US midterm elections: More than 43 million early votes, Texas at the center of the race

With less than a week until the US midterm elections, more than 43 million people have already voted. The race will determine which party controls Congress for the next two years.

Data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab show that between four and five million early votes have been recorded each day. This pace is significantly faster than in most previous elections.

Texas ranks among the states with the highest turnout. Professor Mike McDonald, who runs the Election Lab’s database, said around 5.8 million votes have been cast there, approximately 1.75 million more than in the 2022 elections. The data also show an increase in voting among Hispanic communities.

Texas holds particular importance in the electoral race: the state’s result could affect control of the US Senate for the remainder of Donald Trump’s presidential term.

According to figures released Thursday, Democrats accounted for 44% of early voters, Republicans for 31.2%, while 24.7% had not declared a party affiliation. Preliminary data show an increase in votes for Democrats, while early Republican turnout is generally similar to that in 2022.

However, the figures cover only about half of the states that collect data on voters’ political affiliations. They also do not necessarily show which candidates voters supported.

Higher turnout has been observed among Hispanic and African American communities in several states, including North Carolina, Georgia and Florida. Increases have also been recorded in some Texas counties along the border with Mexico. Hispanic people make up more than 90% of the population in these areas, although Texas voters are not required to declare their party affiliation or race.

Voting before Election Day has become much more widespread in recent years, particularly after the COVID-19 pandemic. More states have given people the opportunity to vote early, either in person at polling places or by mail.

In the 2020 elections, more than two-thirds of votes were cast before Election Day. McDonald notes that more and more voters are choosing to vote in person, even when doing so early.

In McDonald’s assessment, concerns about voting by mail may be one reason for this shift, since errors can lead to ballots being disqualified. However, there is not yet enough data to determine precisely what is driving this trend.

Early voting turnout is expected to decline as November 3, Election Day, approaches, when voters will decide the composition of the US Congress.