US closes military presence in Iraq after 23 years, concerns grow over Iranian influence

U.S. forces are expected to leave the last bases they maintain in Iraq by Wednesday, bringing to an end a military presence that has lasted more than two decades.

The process is based on the 2024 agreement and is taking place during Donald Trump’s administration. Iran and the Iraqi armed groups linked to it have portrayed the withdrawal of U.S. troops as a success for their side.

Iraqi security analysts estimate that the U.S. departure could give Tehran and its allies more opportunities to expand their influence in Iraq. At the same time, there are fears that the absence of U.S. forces could create a security vacuum that could also be exploited by armed organizations such as the Islamic State.

Tehran has welcomed the decision, while Iranian officials have described the withdrawal as a victory for the “axis of resistance,” which includes Iran’s allied groups in the region.

In Iraq, however, assessments are more cautious. Some officials and security specialists warn that the country may not yet be ready to handle all security responsibilities on its own.

The U.S. intervention in Iraq began in 2003 and led to the overthrow of Saddam Hussein’s regime. The U.S. military withdrew at the end of 2011 but returned in 2014, when it began supporting operations against the Islamic State.

Since then, Iraq has been an arena where American and Iranian interests have clashed. In 2020, the U.S. killed Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s senior commander, in a strike at Baghdad airport. At various times, Iran-backed groups have also attacked U.S. bases on Iraqi territory.

Iraq’s authorities must now ensure the continuity of security and prevent the creation of spaces that could be used by armed groups. Reports from security officials about movements by Islamic State cells have increased fears that the group could resume its activities.