UN warns of El Niño consequences: Droughts, floods and powerful storms expected in the coming months

El Niño is intensifying and is expected to expose the world to a dangerous period of extreme weather. According to estimates, this could be one of the most powerful episodes recorded in recent decades.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a UN agency, says El Niño’s impact on global weather patterns could last at least until February 2027.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the planet had entered an “extreme weather danger zone.” The first signs of the phenomenon have already been observed in several regions around the world.

El Niño forms in the Pacific Ocean when warm waters move eastward. This process then affects atmospheric circulation and changes rainfall patterns in different parts of the globe. At key monitoring points in the tropical Pacific, sea surface temperatures are currently more than 2 degrees Celsius above average.

Forecast models indicate that this difference could reach as much as 4 degrees Celsius above normal in the coming months. Under such a scenario, the episode would rank among the most powerful El Niño events since modern measurements began around 1950.

Temperatures below the ocean’s surface are also of particular concern, with some areas recording levels more than 8 degrees Celsius above average.

Changes in rainfall patterns are expected to be among the main effects. Large parts of Southeast Asia, Central America and northern South America could experience drier-than-usual weather, increasing the risk of drought, wildfires and water supply difficulties.

Indonesia is already battling fires that have affected more than 107,000 hectares of land during this dry season. Authorities have stepped up firefighting operations, while artificial rainmaking has also been used in some areas.

The consequences of drought could also extend to international shipping. The number of vessels passing through the Panama Canal is expected to decline because of low rainfall and lower water levels.

However, El Niño’s impact will vary from one region to another. Some countries could face heavier rainfall and more powerful storms. China is forecasting a season of high typhoon activity, while wetter-than-normal weather is expected in parts of East Africa, southern Brazil and the southern United States. These conditions could increase the risk of flooding, landslides and infrastructure damage.

Peru and Ecuador are monitoring the situation with concern, as intense rainfall in these countries could cause flash floods and landslides. The risk is particularly high in cities with inadequate drainage systems.

Australia is another country exposed to the effects of this phenomenon. High sea temperatures have already damaged marine ecosystems.

Experts expect El Niño to bring new marine heatwaves, mainly south of Australia and around Tasmania. Previous episodes have resulted in mass fish deaths, starving penguins, algal blooms and growing numbers of jellyfish.

Australian authorities have strengthened early-warning systems to give at-risk communities and sectors more time to prepare.

Experts explain that El Niño is a natural phenomenon and is not caused by climate change. However, global warming may worsen the effects of extreme weather. “We are very concerned, but that concern must translate into preparedness rather than alarm,” said Miguel Aréstegui, a climate resilience expert.

Meanwhile, the WMO has launched an international mobilization effort to distribute extreme weather forecasts and alerts to as many communities as possible.