UN speaks of a “perfect storm”: El Niño targets food security and millions risk being left without bread

A dangerous combination of droughts, floods and extreme temperatures is becoming a cause of deep concern for the United Nations, which links this situation to rising poverty. The main culprit is the El Niño climate phenomenon, which, according to experts, could further deepen the food crisis across a large part of the planet.

Assessments by the World Food Programme (WFP) paint a grim picture: El Niño’s impacts during 2026-2027 could push at least 49 million additional people into severe food insecurity, while tens of millions more risk facing acute hunger before the end of 2027.

Those who would pay the heaviest price would be the countries already bearing heavy burdens: poverty, wars, fragile economies and repeated blows from climate change.

The issue at focus is the very nature of the phenomenon. El Niño occurs when the surface waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean periodically warm up, a process that overturns rainfall and temperature patterns across continents. The result: drought in some regions, while in others heavy rains and floods.

The consequences for agriculture are immediate – crops are damaged, production falls and food supply chains are disrupted. For families with modest incomes, rising prices and the loss of livelihoods often turn the climate disaster into a full-blown humanitarian crisis.

The WFP also warns that the effects of the phenomenon could last until 2027, as droughts and floods disrupt planting and harvesting cycles.

But drought is not the only threat. The report of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) emphasizes that developing economies are being hit simultaneously by expensive energy and high-cost borrowing.

Alexander De Croo, head of UNDP, declared that this combination of risks could push back into poverty a portion of the world’s population ranging from tens to hundreds of millions of people. According to him, the governments of many countries have been left with two unpleasant choices: either cut support for the poorest segments, or put at risk the financing of development programmes.

Another burden is the cause of public debt. Developing countries are today paying the highest interest rates of the last two decades, which deprives their budgets of funds for education, healthcare and social protection.

Faced with this picture, the UN is calling for immediate action. UNDP is addressing the international community, financial institutions and donor countries, seeking funding on terms that vulnerable states can afford.

The organization’s message is clear: aid must come before the situation worsens, so that families are not left unprotected in the face of rising prices and falling incomes.

The alarm comes precisely as El Niño is gaining strength, with great risks for agriculture and food supplies. Field specialists suggest that timely preparation and financial support could mitigate the blow.

But the greatest fear lies in the possibility that three threats – climate, energy costs and debts – will reverse what has been achieved so far in the battle against poverty, leaving millions of families unprotected in the face of the most basic needs of life.