Scientists Warn El Niño Could Plunge the Amazon into Severe Drought and Wildfires Through 2027

The Amazon could face a particularly severe period of drought, as a powerful El Niño episode is expected to peak at the end of the year, coinciding with the close of the dry season.

According to scientists, high temperatures combined with low rainfall and a lack of moisture will increase the risk of wildfires, worsening the damage to the rainforest.

The Guardian reports that forecasts cited in the article place the phenomenon’s peak between October and December. This is when Amazon rivers typically reach their lowest levels, while vegetation becomes more vulnerable to drought.

Concern is also high because of the Amazon’s role as one of the planet’s most important ecosystems. The forest influences the climate, the water cycle and rainfall across a significant part of South America, while its vegetation absorbs large amounts of carbon dioxide.

Brazil’s meteorological agency has said El Niño could delay the start of the rainy season in the Amazon, bring higher temperatures and reduce river flows.

These conditions could encourage wildfires to spread. Experts stress that the forest, already weakened by deforestation, agriculture, mining and climate change, is more exposed to extreme heat and flames.

Major droughts, falling river levels, wildfires and significant damage to the ecosystem were also recorded during the three previous powerful El Niño episodes, in 1997-98, 2015-16 and 2023-24.

The effects of the phenomenon could last beyond the final months of this year. Experts cited in the article estimate that the impact of ocean warming on the global climate may emerge with a delay, causing adverse conditions to persist through 2027.

Carlos Nobre, a professor at the University of São Paulo and one of Brazil’s leading climate researchers, has said the Amazon must prepare for a severe drought lasting at least until the beginning of 2027.

Indigenous communities have also begun preparing for a difficult season. Local teams tasked with fighting wildfires have been established in several areas.

The risk extends beyond the forest. A prolonged period without rainfall could harm farming and livestock, worsen pasture quality, increase heat stress among animals and cause water shortages.

Farmers in Brazil are taking measures ahead of a difficult season, while experts have expressed concern about the impact the situation could have on soybean production and other agricultural products.

Meanwhile, the UN has warned that the effects of El Niño could increase food insecurity for millions of people worldwide.