Ukraine’s strike on Iran in the Caspian Sea further complicates the situation

Iranian-made drones have caused significant damage to Ukrainian forces fighting against Russian troops. Moscow has also acquired drone technology from Tehran, significantly boosting its production and now uses numerous drones in its war to conquer Ukraine.

From Ukraine’s perspective, this means Iran is indirectly involved in this war. And that means Iranian cargo ships carrying goods to Russia are considered legitimate military targets. This is exactly what happened over the weekend in the Caspian Sea, and now Tehran is not at all pleased.

The invasion launched by Russia in 2022 has shaken European politics. The U.S.-Israel war against Iran has shaken Middle Eastern politics. So, what do the Ukrainian strikes on Iranian cargo or Russian ships in the Caspian Sea mean for these two wars?

“If the Ukrainians continue to do this, they will certainly make it harder for both Iran and Russia. I do not think this is a fundamental change that will alter the course of the war. The Ukrainian attack on an Iranian ship represents a significant shift in tactics and sends a clear message that Ukraine will not tolerate aggression, regardless of where it comes from. I suspect such operations will increasingly complicate maritime transport between Russia and Iran across the Caspian Sea,” said Luke Coffey, a Russia expert at the Hudson Institute, a Washington think tank.

Tehran “responds to any action against it”

The circumstances of the July 25 incident remain unclear. Ukraine’s main domestic intelligence agency, the SBU, said drones struck a Russian missile ship called Molniya, as well as two cargo ships, which it said were under international sanctions and were being used to transport military cargo between Iran and Russia.

“Ukraine has achieved very strong results with its long-range strikes in the Caspian Sea, including against ships used to transport military cargo linked to Iran,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a post on Telegram.

This description appears to refer to two Russian ships, Port Olya 2 and Begey, which are under international sanctions because of the war in Ukraine. What exactly these ships were carrying is not known. After receiving thousands of Iranian-made suicide drones in the early months of the invasion launched in February 2022, Russia built its own assembly plants and added new improvements to the original Iranian designs. Iranian authorities reacted angrily to the attack on the ships, saying one sailor was killed and vowing revenge. Ukraine’s top diplomat in Tehran was summoned for a reprimand at the Iranian Foreign Ministry.

“Zelenskyy has attacked an Iranian merchant ship, killing a sailor,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on X, calling it an open violation of the United Nations Charter, carried out at Israel’s urging to drag Europe into its war.

Kyiv will soon learn that Tehran leaves no action unanswered, said Ebrahim Azizi, chairman of the National Security Commission in the Iranian parliament, in another post. Beyond the tough rhetoric, it remains unclear to what extent Iran would be able to retaliate.

“Tehran is clearly angry, but has very limited ability to project military power against Ukraine. If it decides to respond, I would expect something indirect, such as cyber operations, intelligence activities, support for Russian operations, or perhaps strikes on Ukrainian interests abroad, rather than a conventional military attack. It is not necessarily in Iran’s interest to involve Ukraine in this conflict, and I do not believe it is in Russia’s interest either. The Russians may be pressuring Iran to exercise restraint,” said Saeid Golkar, an expert on Iran’s military and a professor at the University of Tennessee.

Nate Swanson, who served as director for Iran on the White House National Security Council during the presidency of Joe Biden, also expressed doubts about Iran’s ability to respond seriously.

“Iran barks more than it bites when it comes to Ukraine,” said Swanson, now a fellow at the Atlantic Council, a Washington think tank.

“Although it is possible that Iran might take some symbolic response against Ukraine, I believe neither Ukraine nor Iran seeks to open new fronts in their respective wars,” he emphasized.

“Iran’s threats appear more like a signal to Russia,” said Mikhail Troitskiy, head of the Russia and Eurasia Program at Tufts University. “Tehran needs greater support from Moscow, which is likely not meeting all of Iran’s requests for intelligence and equipment.”

Two sides of the coin

This was not the first time Ukraine has struck targets in the Caspian Sea.

The Russian fleet of 28 ships in the Caspian Sea, stationed near Makhachkala, about 1,300 kilometers from territory still under Ukrainian control, has previously launched missiles at targets inside Ukraine.

According to Coffey, at least 12 Russian warships have been hit earlier during the Russian invasion, although the extent of the damage in many cases remains unclear.

Israel too, which has carried out its own strikes against Iran in coordination with U.S. forces, has hit Iranian targets in the Caspian Sea.

On March 18, about three weeks after the start of the U.S.-Israeli campaign, Israeli aircraft struck the port of Bandar Anzali, sinking an unknown number of military vessels.

Experts said it is possible that Ukrainian forces acted over the weekend with the help of Israeli intelligence.

“From a strategic standpoint, this would make sense,” Golkar said. “Israel has very good intelligence coverage in Iran, while Ukraine has a strong interest in disrupting Iran-Russia military cooperation.”

Zelenskyy, who met with President Donald Trump at the White House on July 28, was expected to present the Ukrainian strikes as an important addition to the U.S. campaign against Iran.

Zelenskyy was also expected to raise Ukraine’s earlier claims that Russia is supplying Iran with satellite imagery and other intelligence, helping Tehran target U.S. targets in the Gulf region, including CIA stations.

According to Coffey, the timing of the strikes was also very likely deliberate: to draw the attention of the Trump administration.

“I do not believe this complicates the situation for the Trump administration. On the contrary, the additional pressure on Iran is likely to be viewed positively,” he said. “Also, I doubt it is a coincidence that these attacks on Iranian shipping occurred just days before Zelenskyy’s meetings at the White House.”

However, Kyiv’s efforts to intertwine these two wars could make things harder for Washington, Grajewski said.

“The Americans, for whatever reason, do not want to show that the Russians are involved in the war against Iran,” she said. “In that sense, yes, this complicates the situation because the Ukrainians are going public and saying there is direct Russian involvement.”

The Trump administration “wants to treat these two wars as separate conflicts,” she said. “The more these two wars become intertwined, the harder it will be to justify some of the policies related to Ukraine and Iran.”

“There are two sides to this coin,” Golkar said.

“On the one hand, disrupting Iran-Russia military cooperation aligns with broader U.S. strategic interests without requiring direct American involvement. On the other hand, this adds a new layer of complexity. Washington now must manage relations with Ukraine, Israel, partners in the Persian Gulf, and Iran, while trying to prevent a wider regional escalation.”/REL